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Chelsea v Valencia Tip

Trade of the week: Chelsea v Valencia correct score 2:0, 2:1
Place 1.5 units on 2:0 @ 10.0 and 1.5 units on 2:1 @ 10.0. Place 1 unit on 'any unquoted' @ 9.0. Trade out on 70 minutes if 2:0 or 2:1 or if either scoreline is hit between minute 70-80. Trade out for approximately scratch on 80 mins if 1:0 or 1:1. If Chelsea score 3 goals before 70 minutes, trade out on the 'any unquoted' when the market settles to cover your liability. Option: If 1-1 at any stage and Valencia are looking dangerous, place 1 unit on them in the 'next goal' market for insurance.

Update: Following the trading plan would have seen a profit of 5-6 units however with the game taking on a different pattern to what I expected, I advised on Twitter to exit at half time (2:0) for a 3unit profit as this was the best play longterm. Result: +3units

Chelsea v Valencia Key Stats / Info

Chelsea have won both home games to nil in the Champions League this season and conceeded only 4 goals in 5 games. Valencia have conceeded only 4 goals in their last five away games in all competitions and scored only 1 on the road in their two Champions League games so far.

Potential Game Pattern / lineups

Jonas and Soldado will return for valencia after being rested on Saturday. Chelsea may choose to stick with Didier Drogba Drogba up top with Fernando Torres still on the bench. Expect Emery to be ultra defensive as Valencia only need to avoid defeat to qualify. He will flood the pitch with defensive minded players, leaving Soldado to play a lone strikers role. Chelsea are likely to dominate possession and may struggle to break Valencia down in the early stages.

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Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

  • European Tour (DP World)

  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
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  5. Who are the best sports handicappers?


  6. Golf majors: The Masters 2022 preview and picks - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.