Chelsea v Valencia Tip

Trade of the week: Chelsea v Valencia correct score 2:0, 2:1
Place 1.5 units on 2:0 @ 10.0 and 1.5 units on 2:1 @ 10.0. Place 1 unit on 'any unquoted' @ 9.0. Trade out on 70 minutes if 2:0 or 2:1 or if either scoreline is hit between minute 70-80. Trade out for approximately scratch on 80 mins if 1:0 or 1:1. If Chelsea score 3 goals before 70 minutes, trade out on the 'any unquoted' when the market settles to cover your liability. Option: If 1-1 at any stage and Valencia are looking dangerous, place 1 unit on them in the 'next goal' market for insurance.

Update: Following the trading plan would have seen a profit of 5-6 units however with the game taking on a different pattern to what I expected, I advised on Twitter to exit at half time (2:0) for a 3unit profit as this was the best play longterm. Result: +3units

Chelsea v Valencia Key Stats / Info

Chelsea have won both home games to nil in the Champions League this season and conceeded only 4 goals in 5 games. Valencia have conceeded only 4 goals in their last five away games in all competitions and scored only 1 on the road in their two Champions League games so far.

Potential Game Pattern / lineups

Jonas and Soldado will return for valencia after being rested on Saturday. Chelsea may choose to stick with Didier Drogba Drogba up top with Fernando Torres still on the bench. Expect Emery to be ultra defensive as Valencia only need to avoid defeat to qualify. He will flood the pitch with defensive minded players, leaving Soldado to play a lone strikers role. Chelsea are likely to dominate possession and may struggle to break Valencia down in the early stages.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.


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What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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