Dubai World Championships Round 1 Trades

Trade Of The Week: 1.5units Alvaro Quiros @ 40.0. 2units Paul Casey @ 23.0 (Betfair) Trade after round 1 if possible.

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Last golf event of the season so two trades for R1 to get stuck into. Both are similar type players who the Earth Course in Dubai will be very much suited to. Both finished in the top 6 here last year, can go low in any given round and often start fast. Casey recovered from an opening 79 in the Chevron last week to finish 3rd while Quiros shot 3 rounds in the sixties in Hong Kong to hold the 3rd round lead. Quiros is partnered up with another similar type player in Thomas aiken, and both can potentially bounce off eachother.

Update (Result:) Alvaro Quiros went as low as 8.0 in round 1 but a poor finish saw him trading at 18.0 on Thursday night. Paul Casey had a poor first round and couldn't be traded but a good second round sees him trading at 15.0. Profit: +2.9 units (anyone on these as tournament picks, I'd recommend cashing in on Quiros now. You can let Casey run or take your stake back now for a free bet.
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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