WGC - HSBC Champions Picks

Lucrative week ahead for the golfing world in the WGC - HSBC Champions event. A top class field will tee it up at the Sheshan International Club with market leader Rory McIlroy, looking to hunt down Luke Donald in the Race to Dubai, and off the back of a win last week, the man to beat. At last years HSBC Champions, Lee Westwood, who loves the course, went toe to toe with Francesco Molinari and it was no coincidence that it was those two that blitzed the field. The course sets up for players with a top tee to green game and although the rough is lighter this year, approach shots to slopey greens with false fronts will still be vital.

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Four From The Pack

Pick 1: Martin Kaymer E/W @ 25/1 (general) The world no. 6 has shown signs of form lately after a year of many changes. 23rd last week and 8th at the Portugal masters, Kaymer has good form in this part of the world and the Sheshan International Club should set up nicely for him. Nice looking price compared to McIlroy and Westwood.

Pick 2: Hunter Mahan E/W @ 25/1 (general) Ranking 22nd in GIR% and 4th in the all round ranking on the PGA Tour, Mahan continued his great end of season form last week in Shanghai with a T3, behind McIlroy and Kim on -13. A win very soon for Mahan is on the cards and on this course, it could be this week.

Pick 3: KJ Choi E/W @ 35/1 (Boylesports) Winner of his own event two weeks back and T7 last week, KJ Choi is a former winner of the WGC - HSBC Champions event. For me, with emphasis on approach shots to tricky greens, this event shares similarities with Augusta, where Choi excels.

Pick 4: Bo Van Pelt @ 40/1 (general) Gets the nod over Peter Hanson at this week's HSBC Champions due to his superb win last week at the CIMB classic. Confidence flying, putter obviously on form and noted on the PGA Tour for his superb tee to green game, ranking 9th in total driving and 34th in GIR%.

HSBC Sleeper Picks: Ones To Watch
Paul Casey (50/1) shook off some rust last week with a creditable finish at -4. Finished the regular season with a strong performance in the fall series, has a standout record in the HSBC Champions event and in this part of the world in general. Thomas Bjorn (66/1 sporting Bet) comes into the event also boasting course form. A multiple winner on the European tour this year, Bjorn looked set to challenge once more last week in Andalucia only to put in a mediocre third round. Game in good shape and confidence high, 66/1 is a ridiculous price relative to the field.

Note: If you're betting E/W, take advantage of Bet365's offer up to £200 in free bets to use on this week's WGC - HSBC Champions.
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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