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2011 UBS HONG KONG OPEN PICKS

Nicspicks has seen a fantastic November in the golf as we looked to wind down the season with a bang and Kaymer (25/1), Chalmers 55/1 (Twitter) and Otto (33/1) have provided us with big winners alongside numerous other places and trades, and we have two huge events left to try and wrap up the season in style.

The UBS Hong Kong Open is the warm up for the big one this week as the European Tour heads to Hong Kong GC in Fanling and players will be looking to iron out any cracks in their game before the lucrative season finale in Dubai next week. Others will be looking for a big week to push themselves in to the top 60 and the rest will be doing their best to retain their tour card for next season. The Hong Kong course in Fanling usually sees some low numbers with a winning score into the high teens. The course itself will play very short at only 6,700 yards and premium will be on accuracy and ball striking for this week's UBS Hong Kong Open.

UBS Hong Kong Open Picks - Four From The Pack

Pick 1: Miguel Jiminez E/W @ 33/1 (Skybet) A man returning to the scene of multiple wins at the UBS Hong Kong Open this week, and a course in Fanling that fits his game so well. Off the back of a more than decent Omega World Cup with partner Alvaro Quiros and should be a feature on this track.

Pick 2: Marcus Fraser E/W @ 50/1 (Ladbrokes) Big value against the UBS Hong Kong Open field this week, off the back of two recent top 10's on the main tour and a very near miss last week in the Aus PGA as he lost out in a playoff. Eye Catching Hong Kong GC course form too with a T7, 10 and T11 finish here in last four years. Expect him to be backed in before Wednesday evening. Ranks 15th in Driving accuracy and course sets up nicely for his game.

Pick 3: Thongchai Jaidee E/W @ 50/1 (Skybet) Excels in this part of the world and has found some form at the back end of the season, culminating in a 15th place finish two weeks back in the Johor Open and a decent WC. Loves the course with 5/5 top 20's in last five years, including a T2 and T3.

Pick 4: Richard Green E/W @ 55/1 (BET365) Horses for courses and when it comes to accuracy and ball striking, Green gets my attention straight away. I'm always on the lookout for the left hander on courses under 7,000 yards. Played some superb stuff at the Omega WC last week where he carried team mate Brendan Jones at times. Green can go low in any given round and keep an eye on my 'trade of the week' section later in the week.

UBS Hong Kong Open Sleeper Pick

Pick 5: Gareth Maybin E/W @ 125/1 (Ladbrokes) I've been monitoring Maybin in recent weeks and he's been shooting some good rounds but failing to put four together so results are not exactly reflecting his play. T7 at Hong Kong GC last year, shooting an incredibly low round 61 in the process, Maybin may be (sorry!) one to watch this week on a short course that suits.

Note: If you're betting E/W, take advantage of Bet365's offer up to £200 in free bets to use on this week's UBS Hong Kong Open.

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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