2011 South African Open Championship Picks

A field much the same as last week at the South African Open Championship but with three notable additions - Dyson, Els and Goosen. Els and the goose are formidable on home soil but both are in poor form and for me, I'll gladly get on the value that's been ramped up elsewhere on a new venue for this week's South African Open Championship. Follow me on Twitter: @Nicspicks for in running trades and updates.

South African Open championship Picks

Pick 1: Jaco van Zyl E/W @ 22/1 (general) No reason to jump off the Van Zyl ship this week as a great final round in tough conditions at Leopard Creek earned us a place return. With no course form to go on it's always a positive move to go for steady players.

Pick 2: JB Kruger E/W @ 33/1 (general) Another who proved very profitable last week for Nicspicks' followers that trade the golf and progressive form now reading 23, 13, 9 after a poor weekend dropped him back a little from the half way lead. Very strong on home soil and may go one better this week at the South African Open Championship.

Pick 3: Thomas Aiken E/W @ 33/1 (general) Amazingly, Thomas Aiken can be backed at more than double the odds of his market leader spot last week. This is off the back of what is quite possibly an insignificant missed cut. A bounce back from Aiken could very well be on the cards on a lengthy Serengeti course where big hitters will have an advantage and he looks superb value against the field.

Pick 4: Hennie Otto E/W @ 33/1 (general) Another South African who's very strong on home soil and challenged strongly last week with a T7, making it three top 20 finishes in a row for him on the European Golf Tour

South African Open Sleeper Pick
Branden Grace E/W @ 125/1 (Bet365) Ranking 10th on the Sunshine Tour Order Of Merit and winner of multipe pro am events in the region, Grace has good South African Open Championship form, finishing T6 in 2008 and T21 the last two years running. Poor second round last week meant missing the cut but 125/1 with BET365 looks a great E/W price.

Note: If you're betting E/W, take advantage of Bet365's offer up to £200 in free bets to use on this week's SA Open Championship.
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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