2011 Alfred Dunhill Championship Picks

The European Tour heads to South Africa this week as the focus in the main will be on the Presidents Cup but it's the Alfred Dunhill Championship and Leopard Creek GC that will be getting my attention as we look to continue on from Kaymer and Chalmers' recent successes. Generally, leaderboards of events in South Africa tend to be dominated by the home players and that's a trend I'll be keeping in mind when sizing up this week's Alfred Dunhill Championship. The Leopard Creek course plays over 7,300 yards but by all accounts, accuracy from the tee and GIR% will be the key stats this week. I'll be focusing my picks mainly on the market leaders as I feel they have quite a significant advantage on this Alfred Dunhill Championship field. Make sure to follow me on Twitter: @Nicspicks so as not to miss out on tips like 55/1 Greg Chalmers last week.

Alfred Dunhill Championship Picks - Four From The Pack

Pick 1: Thomas Aiken E/W @ 14/1 (general) Not in the best of form currently but a very strong player on home soil. Two top 5's at Leopard Creek in the last three years and possibly the man to beat this week at the Alfred Dunhill Championship.

Pick 2: Jaco Van Zyl E/W @ 30/1 (Betfred) A man who's dominated the Sunshine Tour in recent seasons and took a step up this year while performing over on the European circuit. Numerous top 20's and unlucky not to grab a win while losing out in a playoff in Morocco earlier in the season, Van Zyl ranks 12th in driving accuracy and is another not to be opposed on home turf.

Pick 3: George Coetzee E/W @ 14/1 (general) Hoping for a better price on Coetzee but a player who's really turned it on this year. Consistent name on the European Tour leaderboards in 2011 and on my radar for the South African swing for a long time.

Pick 4: JB Kruger E/W @ 40/1 (Betfred) Showing progressive form with a 23rd place finish in the HSBC followed up with a 13th at the Barclays Singapore after a poor round on the easy Tanjong Course. Ranks 8th on the european tour in GIR% and finished T10 at the Alfred Dunhill Championship last year.

Alfred Dunhill Championship Sleeper Picks

Pick 5: Keith Horne E/W @ 90/1 (Betfred) Continuing the theme of home based players that are used to the Kikuyu grass at Leopard Creek, Horne has not finished worse than 34th in the last four years at the Alfred Dunhill Championship, boasting three top 20's including a 6th place finish in 2009.

Pick 6: Tjaart Van Der Walt E/W @ 100/1 (Paddypower) Eye catching form at the Alfred dunhill Championship and a strong 10th place finish at the Barclays singapore Open last week makes him worth a small investment.
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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