It's the season finale this week in the shape of the Tour Championship at East Lake. The rough is down this year on a course that's played very tough in recent history and this is something I'll be looking to take advantage of. I'll be staying well away from the market leaders in what is only a 30 man field and looking for players down the list as Furyk was last year for us.

The Tour Championship Picks (places 1-4)
Pick 1: Geoff Ogilvy E/W @ 22/1 (general) Must be on cloud nine this week after just scraping into the last two events. Free rolling and confidence high, I'm surprised there are so many ahead of him in the betting. Game obviously in great shape and with the rough down, this will only help Ogilvy. Greens are set to run at 12 on the stimp and Ogilvy, who loves fast greens, ranks 3rd in putting from 5-15'. Has shot a 64, 66 and 67 in three of his last eight rounds at the Tour championship on a tough East Lake track.

Pick 2: Brandt Snedeker E/W @ 25/1 (general) Very much like Ogilvy this week, Snedeker will benefit from the lack of rough and the fast greens. Ranking 5th in strokes gained putting and 6th in total putting, Snedeker comes off the back of a T22 at the BMW. East Lake has been re designed by Donald Ross and Snedeker often produces his best form on Donald Ross tracks and he could be a dark horse for the Tour Championship.

Pick 3: Gary Woodland E/W @ 30/1 (general) Noone is talking up Gary Woodland's chances this week at the Tour Championship, except me. Coming off the back of a T16 last week, ranking 5th in driving distance (misleading stat, he's actually the longest hitter in the game) and 14th in GIR%, Woodland continues the theme of players who could benefit from lighter rough this year at the Tour Championship.

Note: If you're betting E/W, take advantage of Bet365's offer up to £200 in free bets to use on this week's Tour Championship.
Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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