Champions League - Dortmund v Arsenal Tips

Arsenal's squad is getting thinner with the news that Aaron Ramsey and Thomas Rosicky have joined the injury list ahead of their massive Champions League encounter against Dortmund on Tuesday night. Injury problems of their own this season for Dortmund with main striker Lucas Barrios sidelined and unlikely to feature v Arsenal. Goals havn't been flowing for Dortmund in his absence but tonight they will face a new look and unfamiliar Arsenal defence.

Per Mertesacker will know all about Dortmund and he'll know the main threat will likely come from the returning Mario Gotze (from Bundesliga suspension) and the Japan star Shinji Kagawa who's coming up under the radar in some sportsbooks. Kagawa has a decent scoring record for both Japana and Dortmund and very much over priced in places. I'm still expecting an open game with some goals as Arsenal continue their attacking approach. Watch out for Andrey Arshavin who has found a return to form in recent matches. He was a massive threat for Russia against Ireland and grabbed the winner for Arsenal at the weekend.

Dortmund v Arsenal Advised Tips
Tip 1: Arsenal(+0.5) Asian Handicap @ 7/8(B365)
Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.06 (Betfair)
Tip 3: Arshavin anytime scorer @ 6.6 (Betfair)Brace @ 40/1 (Bsq)
Tip 4: Kagawa anytime scorer @ 3/1 | Brace @ 29/1 ( Unibet)

Anytime goalscorer prices on Nicspicks generally with Unibet and Betfair for best prices throughout the season. For more football tips, see my football services in sidebar.

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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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