2011 BMW Championship Picks

Pick 1: Nick Watney E/W @ 25/1 (general) Premium this week is on fairways and greens on a lengthy par 71, Dubsdread track. Nick Watney ranks 24th in total driving and 31st in GIR% and I'm sticking with him this week despite a 4th round capitulation 2 weeks ago. He's had a couple of weeks to recover and it's not the first time we've seen him lose the head in a big event. Prior to that, he was showing arguably the best progressive form on tour. T15 at the BMW Championship last year.

Pick 2: Charl Schwartzel E/W @ 33/1 (general) Along with Dustin Johnson, played possibly the best golf from tee to green at the Deutsche Bank and just like Johnson couldn't get the putter going. Schwartzel has been firmly on the radar for a few weeks now and looks set to challenge strongly for a big one and the Dubsdread course at the BMW Championship could suit.

Pick 3: Hunter Mahan E/W @ 40/1 (general) Can't believe Hunter's price this week relative to the field. Mahan is one of only a few players to reach the final stop of the Playoff events (Tour Championship) every year since it began which tells us he plays well close season. Ranking 13th in GIR% and 5th in the all round, Hunter is one of the best players on tour from tee to green and goes into the BMW Championship on the back of a final round 66 at the Deutsche Bank which included 8 birdies and a double. One of the favourites this week for me.

Pick 4: Rickie Fowler @ 40/1 (general) Again, I'm tipping up Fowler largely on price at the BMW Championship. Fowler continuosly plays three rounds well with a poor one thrown in. One of these weeks, he's going to do a Rory McIlroy and blitz a top class field on his way to his maiden victory. Always a good player for trading purposes.

Pick 5: Bubba Watson E/W @ 50/1 (general) Return to form two weeks ago with a T16 when leading after R3, Watson's stats stick out a mile away for a course with premium on hitting the greens. Ranking 2nd in driving distance and 1st in GIR%, Watson also finished T15th here in 2009.

BMW Championship Sleeper picks
Mark Wilson is a resident of the area and has been another on my radar for a few weeks now. Two time winner earlier in the year, showing progressive form and his steady tee to green game makes his price an eye catching one (110/1 with B365). Rory Sabbitini is an enigma that often plays well at this time of year. He's been showing signs of form recently and capable of challenging the big boys strongly when he's in the mood. 125/1 (B365).

Note: If you're betting E/W, take advantage of Bet365's offer up to £200 in free bets to use on this week's BMW Championship.
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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