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2011 Alfred Dunhill Links Picks

Top class field this week for the Alfred Dunhill Links and I often like to wait until in running to trade such events with four or five big favourites but as usual, there a few guys that could challenge them and offer some E/W value from the start.

Alfred Dunhill Links Picks
Pick 1: Simon Dyson E/W @ 22/1 (general) Links specialist has done well for us this year and comes into the event with another win under his belt only a few weeks ago. Not many better in windy conditions and still striking the ball fantastically well. Confidence sky high and winner of the Alfred Dunhill Links in 2009, with a T5 here last year.

Pick 2: Charl Schwartzel E/W @ 28/1 (general) Has stated in a recent interview that he's only in the last few years, got to grips with playing around St. Andrews and the likes and he now loves playing there. In recent good form in the US Playoffs and will enjoy a return to the European Tour at the Alfred Dunhill Links. Can draw inspiration from good mate Oosthuizen's success the home of golf.

Pick 3: Ross Fisher E/W @ 40/1 (general) 2nd at the Alfred Dunhill Links in 2008, 11th last year and off the back of a T6 at the KLM Open, having shot a 2nd round 74, Fisher is another who knows how to play in windy conditions. Some of his victories have come in adverse weather conditions.

Pick 4: Peter Hanson E/W @ 45/1 (general) A player who is more often than not well over priced in events like this. One of the best wind players in the game due to his fantastic ball striking ability. T16 here in 2009.

Alfred Dunhill Links Sleeper Picks
John Parry (140/1 bet365) finished solo third at the Alfred Dunhill Links last year, thrives at this time of the season and tweeted this week that his game is in fine shape. Richie Ramsey (125/1 Betfred) tied 4th here in 2009 and loves links golf. His form reads 12, 44, 34 and 16 and he could be about to ignite.

Note: If you're betting E/W, take advantage of Bet365's offer up to £200 in free bets to use on this week's Dunhill Links.

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

  • European Tour (DP World)

  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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  6. Golf majors: The Masters 2022 preview and picks - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.