2011 Alfred Dunhill Links Picks

Top class field this week for the Alfred Dunhill Links and I often like to wait until in running to trade such events with four or five big favourites but as usual, there a few guys that could challenge them and offer some E/W value from the start.

Alfred Dunhill Links Picks
Pick 1: Simon Dyson E/W @ 22/1 (general) Links specialist has done well for us this year and comes into the event with another win under his belt only a few weeks ago. Not many better in windy conditions and still striking the ball fantastically well. Confidence sky high and winner of the Alfred Dunhill Links in 2009, with a T5 here last year.

Pick 2: Charl Schwartzel E/W @ 28/1 (general) Has stated in a recent interview that he's only in the last few years, got to grips with playing around St. Andrews and the likes and he now loves playing there. In recent good form in the US Playoffs and will enjoy a return to the European Tour at the Alfred Dunhill Links. Can draw inspiration from good mate Oosthuizen's success the home of golf.

Pick 3: Ross Fisher E/W @ 40/1 (general) 2nd at the Alfred Dunhill Links in 2008, 11th last year and off the back of a T6 at the KLM Open, having shot a 2nd round 74, Fisher is another who knows how to play in windy conditions. Some of his victories have come in adverse weather conditions.

Pick 4: Peter Hanson E/W @ 45/1 (general) A player who is more often than not well over priced in events like this. One of the best wind players in the game due to his fantastic ball striking ability. T16 here in 2009.

Alfred Dunhill Links Sleeper Picks
John Parry (140/1 bet365) finished solo third at the Alfred Dunhill Links last year, thrives at this time of the season and tweeted this week that his game is in fine shape. Richie Ramsey (125/1 Betfred) tied 4th here in 2009 and loves links golf. His form reads 12, 44, 34 and 16 and he could be about to ignite.

Note: If you're betting E/W, take advantage of Bet365's offer up to £200 in free bets to use on this week's Dunhill Links.
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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