Premier League Top Goal Scorer 2011/12

The Favourite - Javier Hernandez E/W @ 17/2 (general) Hernandez settled in well at Manchester UTD in his first Premier League year and has nailed down the main striking spot with Rooney playing just off. He is a big favourite for me in the Premier League top scorer market if he can remain fit. An all round striker with pace to burn, intelligent running off the back line of defence, a high quality finisher and surprisingly enough, he's even competent in the air.

With the supply this year of Rooney, Nani and now Ashley Young, 30 goals for Hernandez this season would not surprise me at all. The best option is to trade on Betfair. You'll get 9/1 now, possibly bigger before he returns to action and (barring big injury) if his price doesn't shorten significantly in the top scorer market over the course of the season, I'd be very very surprised.

Top Goal Scorer - The Value Man
Andy Carroll E/W @ 20/1 (general) Again, the Premier League top goal scorer market has a certain element of luck involved with a big injury possibly lurking around the corner. Andy Carroll, for me, if he stays fit is not only a good each way bet for Premier League top scorer, he could challenge strongly for the golden boot. Liverpool (14/1) could be real dark horses this year and while the main focus is on Luis Suarez, I'm looking at the Carroll / Downing duo.

Kenny will be focusing a lot of Liverpool's play this year down the left flank with Downing, one of the best crossers in the Premier League, firing in balls for Carroll. For a big man though, Carroll is not all about heading, he has good feet and is a good finisher. He will also benefit from the set piece delivery of Charlie Adam who had a hand in most of Blackpool's goals last season and Carroll is the best value for me for this year's Premier League top scorer golden boot.

The longshot - Keep an eye on Edin Dzeko this year. I followed him in the Bundesliga for a few years and he has proved very profitable in the past. He's the definition of a goal machine (left foot, right foot, brilliant header and goals from inside and outside the box) and if Tevez is to leave, Dzeko who followed in the vein of last year's 40/1 top scorer tip Berbatov in scoring to boost his confidence in the Community Shield, could very well step up and get off to a flyer. 33/1 E/W with PP.

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Golf Player Profiles

Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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