Pick 1: Phil Mickelson E/W @ 25/1 (general) Simmering at the moment, Mickelson will have fond memories of Atlanta Athletic Club, this year's venue for the US PGA Championship. Finished runner up to David Toms here in 2001 and his added length from the tee will put him at an advantage on the par 70 lay out, playing approximately 7,500 yards. Eye catching price this week on Mickelson who looked like he was going to grab another major a few weeks back at the Open championship.

GOLF TRADING: The golf trading advisory service continues this week with the PGA Championship for those who trade or would like some insight into trading golf tournaments. You will need a Betfair account. Cheers for all the feedback so far.

Pick 2: Jason Day E/W @ 25/1 (general) Day has become a serious player on the PGA Tour with yet another top 5 finish in a big event last week. With two 2nd place finishes in the three majors already this season, the confident Australian could be the man to beat at this week's US PGA Championship. Ranks 19 in driving distance and loves tough courses.

Pick 3: Nick Watney E/W @ 35/1 (general) Always one to watch and has been lacking in competitive action recently. Returned at the WGC Bridgestone with only a poor final round preventing him from a high finish. Ranks 3rd in the all round ranking and 25th in total driving. Premium this week could be on long iron approach shots and Watney ranks T18 in approaches from 175-200 yards. Again, becoming a serious competitior in the big events and this week's US PGA Championship is one he'll be aiming to win.

Pick 4: Matt Kuchar E/W @ 45/1 (general) Possibly the best value price at the US PGA Championship on the ever consistent Kuchar who retuned with a top 20 at the WGC Bridgestone after a few week's quiet period, by his standards. Ranking 4th in the all round and 6th in scoring average, the Atlanta course could really suit Kuchar this week.

Sleeper Watch
Pick 5: David Toms E/W @ 66/1 (pp) Can harldy be a better fit for the profile this week as Toms, off the back of a T9 finish at Bridgestone returns to the scene of his US PGA Championship major success ten years ago. Toms ranks 7th in approaches from 175-200 yards and 4th in putting from 20-25ft. Greens are set to run fast at the Atlanta Athletic Club.

Note: If you're betting E/W, take advantage of Bet365's offer up to £200 in free bets to use on this week's US PGA Championship.
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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