I'm doing both tours on Nicspicks this week as Europe heads to the stunning Crans Sur Sierre course in Switzerland for the Omega European Masters and it's no wonder the likes of Westwood, Mcilroy and Kaymer have all booked their stay in the mountains. Distance control is imperative at the Omega Masters and those with a high ball flight often tend to feature such as the 2009 winner, Alex Noren and of course Rory Mcilroy. Mcilroy and Westwood will be hard to beat but here are five players that could challenge them this week.

Pick 1: Martin Kaymer E/W @ 20/1(general) Having a poor season by his standards after many changes but a price of 20/1 in a field of this quality catches the eye. Ranking 20 in GIR%, Kaymer has the game to do well around the Cran Sur Sierre course at the Omega european Masters this week.

Pick 2: Matteo Manassero E/W @ 20/1(general) Ranking 15th in GIR%, distance control is Manassero's strong point. T23 here in 2009 and T2 last year, Manassero can draw inspiration from the venue he claims kick started his career.

Pick 3: Simon Dyson E/W @ 30/1 (general) Flushing the ball with his irons right now, not only getting it pin high but firing right at the pins last week at the Johnnie Walker where he eventually finished 15th. Recent win in Ireland has given him an extra spring in his step (literally!) and he has Omega European masters form, finishing T7 here two years back.

Pick 4: Edoardo Molinari E/W @ 45/1 (general) Can't quite believe the price on last year's runner up (tie) who also placed in the top 15 in 2009. His struggles this year have kept him very much under the radar in Cran and are down to the fact that he's been juggling his golf on both sides of the pond but he's back focused in Europe now and showing signs that he's ready to get back into contention. One of the tour's best putters.

Omega European Master's Sleeper Pick:
Pick 5: Ross McGowan @ 200/1 (Bet365) A huge priced pick this week for the Omega Masters and one I've had my eye on all season for this event. Terrible injury trouble over the last year or so have him in the wilderness but I know he loves this course and distance control also a strong point of his. T7 in 2008 and 3rd in 2009, he could be re invigorated this week in the mountains.

Note: If you're betting E/W, take advantage of Bet365's offer up to £200 in free bets to use on this week's Omega European Masters.
Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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