2011 Deutsche Bank Championship Picks

Pick 1: Dustin Johnson E/W @ 18/1 (general) Wouldn't usually be one to back a player the week after he's had a win but the playoffs are different. All players have one goal and that's to win the Fedex Cup and indeed it's not unheard of for back to back winners in the playoffs. It's another birdie fest this week at TPC Boston and the deutsche Bank championship and all my picks are those capable of going seriously low and Dustin Johnson is a standout candidate. Johnson has course form too with a T4 a few years back and 15th here last year.

Pick 2: Nick Watney E/W @ 22/1 (general) Definitely now the man with the best progressive form on tour, I'll be sticking once again with Watney this week at the Deutsche Bank championship. No outstanding course form but Watney is a different player this year. Closed last week with a -7 and capable of shooting really low numbers. Streaky Watney ranks 5th in birdie average.

Pick 3: Matt Kuchar @ 22/1 (general) Runner up last week after a serious return to form, Kuchar is one of my favourite golfers for betting purposes. Top 20's at the Deutsche Bank the last two years and high in confidence. Kuchar ranks 25th in total birdies and 4th in the all round.

Pick 4: Jason Day @ 22/1 (general) Talented Aussie let us down in the PGA letting almost 10 shots go from holes 15-18 in rounds 1 and 2 from great positions on the leaderboard, to miss the cut. I had wondered what his weaknesses were until then but the odd erratic moment and errant shot should go unpunished at TPC Boston which makes Day a big danger man. T19 at the Deutsche Bank Championship in 2009, T2nd last year and off the back of a top 20 last week.

First draft of the trading plan sent out for subscribers of the golf trading service. I'll be doing a handful more tournaments this year if you still want to sign up. Click link.

Pick 5: Rickie Fowler E/W @ 45/1 (general) The Rickie Fowler rule kicks into gear again as a price over 40's represents good value on a TPC Boston course where birdies in bunches will be key. Fowler is capable of putting low rounds together and one to watch at the Deutsche Bank.

Note: If you're betting E/W, take advantage of Bet365's offer up to £200 in free bets to use on this week's Deutsche Bank Championship.
Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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