Open Championship Top American Market

With the relative inexperience of the Americans on links courses and strong winds expected at Royal St. Georges, I think the Top American market this week is pretty wide open. With the market heavily weighted in favour of the bigger names, some names further down the list jump out for me at great value E/W prices. All players have shown good mental toughness in the past and can cope in windy conditions. Picks 1 and 2 are multiple winners on the PGA Tour and know how to compete in big company.

Top American Picks:
Pick 1: Ryan Palmer E/W @ 50/1 (Coral, places 1-5)
Pick 2: Bill Haas E/W @ 50/1 (Coral, places 1-5)
Pick 3: Jason Dufner E/W @ 80/1 (PP, places 1-4)

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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