BMW PGA Championship Picks
Note: In events like these where prices are slim on the big 6 or 7 favs, I often like to start betting/trading after round 1.

Pick 1: Paul Casey E/W @ 33/1 (Betfred) Casey not in great form this year but loves the Wentworth course and the BMW PGA championship. Winner here in 2009 and his driving ability gives him an edge around the twisty tree lined track.

NOTE:If you're betting E/W, take advantage of Bet365's offer up to £200 in free bets that you can use on this week's BMW PGA Championship.

Pick 2: Ross Fisher E/W @ 33/1 (general) Similar to Casey in terms of not being in great form but home course for Fisher and a regular on the leaderboard at the BMW Championship. Driving his best attribute.....

Pick 3: Francesco Molinari E/W @ 35/1 (general) Again, the tee to green game and mainly driving ability are what I'm focusing on this week and Molinari should have the game to tackle Wentworth. Important to miss the old fashioned deep fairway bunkers that will often cost you a shot if you hit them. Ability to shape the ball around the doglegs an advantage.

Pick 4: Miguel Jiminez E/W @ 50/1 (SJ) Fantastic ball striker and previous winner at the BMW PGA Championship. Knows the course well (although there have been some changes) and experience will give him an edge.

Want access to my best golf match betting tips? Click here

Pick 5: Anders Hansen E/W @ 50/1 (general) Multiple winner of this event and a must pick this week given his obvious liking for the course and his great current form at such a big price.
Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Best for Golf Betting

Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides
  5. Who are the best sports handicappers?

  6. GOLF MAJORS 2024: The Masters - US PGA Championship - US Open - Open Championship