BMW PGA Championship Picks
Note: In events like these where prices are slim on the big 6 or 7 favs, I often like to start betting/trading after round 1.

Pick 1: Paul Casey E/W @ 33/1 (Betfred) Casey not in great form this year but loves the Wentworth course and the BMW PGA championship. Winner here in 2009 and his driving ability gives him an edge around the twisty tree lined track.

NOTE:If you're betting E/W, take advantage of Bet365's offer up to £200 in free bets that you can use on this week's BMW PGA Championship.

Pick 2: Ross Fisher E/W @ 33/1 (general) Similar to Casey in terms of not being in great form but home course for Fisher and a regular on the leaderboard at the BMW Championship. Driving his best attribute.....

Pick 3: Francesco Molinari E/W @ 35/1 (general) Again, the tee to green game and mainly driving ability are what I'm focusing on this week and Molinari should have the game to tackle Wentworth. Important to miss the old fashioned deep fairway bunkers that will often cost you a shot if you hit them. Ability to shape the ball around the doglegs an advantage.

Pick 4: Miguel Jiminez E/W @ 50/1 (SJ) Fantastic ball striker and previous winner at the BMW PGA Championship. Knows the course well (although there have been some changes) and experience will give him an edge.

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Pick 5: Anders Hansen E/W @ 50/1 (general) Multiple winner of this event and a must pick this week given his obvious liking for the course and his great current form at such a big price.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:

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Golf Player Profiles

Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

  • European Tour (DP World)

  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips

Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides
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  6. Golf majors: The Masters 2022 preview and picks - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.