2011 WGC CA Championship Picks

WGC CA championship Picks:

Pick 1: Matt Kuchar E/W @ 25/1 (general)All rounder Kuchar has continued where he left off last season in terms of consistency and quality and I expect him to be up there again at this week's WGC CA Championship.

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Pick 2: Nick Watney E/W @ 22/1 (general) Over powered Doral 2 years ago when Mickelson pipped him to the win and if the weather isn't too bad, he can do the same again. A low winning total is likely for the WGC CA Championships and Watney can go seriously low on any given day.....

Pick 3: Charl Schwartzel E/W @ 28/1 (general) Ran Ernie Els all the way in last year's WGC CA Championship at Doral and currently in fine form with a good performance last week. If he can sort out his short fuse, Schwartzel could be 1 of the world's finest golfers.

Pick 4: Robert Allenby E/W @ 66/1 (general)I'll stick with Allenby this week as last week his finishing position was a little lower than his golf deserved. He is another who has decent course form at Doral and often gets off to a good start.

Betfair prices:
Watney 22, Kuchar 28, Schwartzel 30, Allenby 100, Overton 100, Kim 150

Sleeper Picks:
Pick 5: Jeff Overton E/W @ 75/1 (Bet365) Seriously streaky player who can handle any type of golf course and any type of field when on form. Very much an underrated golfer and could sneak in under the radar at this week's WGC CA Championships.

Pick 6: Anthony Kim E/W @ 80/1 (general) The inconsistent and enigmatic Anthony Kim is not in great form right now but that's hasn't stopped him from turning it on out of nowhere before and this course suits the aggressive birdie makers.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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