Qatar Masters Picks - Green Light For Alvaro

Qatar Masters Picks

Another near miss last week with 33/1 Peter Hanson hitting as low as 1.4 on the exchanges at 1 point and 22/1 pick Jiminez also right up there. There's 1 standout pick for this week's Qatar Masters :

See a couple of my fancies for the Waste Management Open

Nic's Picks Favourite: Alvaro Quiros E/W @ 16/1 (Totesport) Looking down the Qatar Master's leaderboards in recent years, there's 1 standout player and that's Quiros with a 2nd and a win here in the last 2 years. Quiros can overpower the Doha golf course and greens set to run slow which will suit....

Pick 2: Peter Hanson E/W @30/1 (Bet365) Sticking with the in form Hanson this week. Swinging beautifully and confidence really high. Putting has improved a great deal and he has course form.

Pick 3: Henrik Stenson E/W @ 40/1 (Bet365) | First round leader @ 35/1 (general) Fantastic record on the course and signs of a return to form after a bad illness last year. Stenson is 1 of the first out and may get the best of expected windy conditions. It's big hitters that will thrive this week if winds blow as expected.

Pick 4: Alex Noren E/W @ 40/1 (Bet365) | First round leader @ 40/1 (general)Torn between the in form Noren who is well suited to the course and Ross Fisher who is likewise for my final Qatar Masters Pick but again, Noren is out early and could get the best part of the draw.

Sleeper Watch: Johan Edfors (70), Ricardo Gonzalez (80) and Brett Rumford (125) are all names to look out for at the Qatar Masters this week. Rumford and Edfors have good course form and playing well recently. Gonzalez has the game to tackle Doha GC, especially if the winds blow as mentioned previously.

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Golf Player Profiles

Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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