Mayakoba Golf Championship Picks

Mayakoba Golf Championship Picks
Pick 1: Brian Gay E/W @ 12/1 (general) A big winner at a big price for Nic's Picks before and loves this type of course and set up. He's blown away the field on a couple of occasions in recent times in a tournaments similar to the Mayakoba Championships and bookies are taking no chances on him this time round. Small price but a potentially good trading opportunity. Top Mayakoba course form....


Pick 2: Spencer Levin E/W @ 25/1 (general) Course form and fantastic current form and all the attributes to make a real push for glory at the Mayakoba Championship this week.

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Pick 3: Kevin Stadler E/W @ 50/1 (SJ) Streaky player who is massively over priced this week at the Mayakoba Championship. Regular feature on the leaderboard here over the last few years and finished last week with top 20.

Pick 4: Andres Romero E/W @ 66/1(general) Another streaky player who ability wise is 1 of the best in what is a relatively weak field this week at Mayakoba. Decent current form and can go really low when playing well. Has been in the winners circle and not afraid of being out late at the weekends.

Sleeper Pick: I tipped Joe Durant at big odds for a top 10 finish last year at the Mayakoba championships due to his form on the Riviera Maya Cancun course and he went 1 better and challenged strongly for the win, leading the tournament after round 1. The 90/1(SJ) may be due to a withdrawal last week but certainly worth backing E/W at that price.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.


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Angles and Edges: a journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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