Mayakoba Golf Championship Picks

Mayakoba Golf Championship Picks
Pick 1: Brian Gay E/W @ 12/1 (general) A big winner at a big price for Nic's Picks before and loves this type of course and set up. He's blown away the field on a couple of occasions in recent times in a tournaments similar to the Mayakoba Championships and bookies are taking no chances on him this time round. Small price but a potentially good trading opportunity. Top Mayakoba course form....

Pick 2: Spencer Levin E/W @ 25/1 (general) Course form and fantastic current form and all the attributes to make a real push for glory at the Mayakoba Championship this week.

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Pick 3: Kevin Stadler E/W @ 50/1 (SJ) Streaky player who is massively over priced this week at the Mayakoba Championship. Regular feature on the leaderboard here over the last few years and finished last week with top 20.

Pick 4: Andres Romero E/W @ 66/1(general) Another streaky player who ability wise is 1 of the best in what is a relatively weak field this week at Mayakoba. Decent current form and can go really low when playing well. Has been in the winners circle and not afraid of being out late at the weekends.

Sleeper Pick: I tipped Joe Durant at big odds for a top 10 finish last year at the Mayakoba championships due to his form on the Riviera Maya Cancun course and he went 1 better and challenged strongly for the win, leading the tournament after round 1. The 90/1(SJ) may be due to a withdrawal last week but certainly worth backing E/W at that price.

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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Golf Player Profiles

Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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