AT&T Pebble Beach Picks

AT&T Pebble Beach Golf Picks

Note: Dustin Johnson is the outstanding favourite to win this week at Pebble Beach. Tipped for the AT&T on Nic's Picks last year at 25/1, the best price you will get this year is 7/1 and is not worth going near.

Pick 1: Geoff Ogilvy E/W @ 25/1 (Betfred) 1 of the most accurate players on tour with the irons, key this week at the AT&T Pebble Beach. Fantastic putter and started season really strongly. Knows how to win.....

Pick 2: J.B Holmes E/W @ 35/1 (Stanjames) Current and course form and attributes. Close to a win at Pebble Beach last year and can over power the par 5's, key to low scoring this week. Finished in the places last at the Phoenix.

Pick 3: Charley Hoffmann E/W @ 80/1 (bet365) Well used to the Poa Annua greens being from California which will give him an advantage over most of the field. Bit of a ragged season so far with some low rounds and some not so good rounds but has gone low in the AT&T over the years. Again, will take advantage of the par 5's.

Pick 4: Bo Van Pelt E/W @ 50/1 (bet365) Another big winner for Nic's Picks last year and one of the best all rounders on tour. Long and straight off the tee and good with the irons, as well as being a decent putter. Signs that his game is about to hit top gear and the AT&T Pebble Beach could be his type of tournament.

Sleeper Watch

AT&T sleeper Picks: David Duval E/W @ 110/1(Bet365) Duval pushed Dustin Johnson all the way here last year and has started the season in decent shape. His iron play will be an advantage over these courses.
Paul Goydos @ 200/1 E/W (Betfred) Californian native who I also tipped to do well at the AT@T Pebble Beach last year and he could and maybe should have won if not for a disastrous hole on the back 9 of the Pebble Beach course which took numerous victims and will possibly do so again this year.
DJ Trahan @ 80/1 (general) Right up there in par 5 performance and birdie making and a feature here the last couple of years. Not started this season in good form but certain tournaments can kick start players.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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