Volvo Golf Championship Picks

Volvo Golf Championship Picks

Pick 1: Francesco Molinari E/W @ 11/1 (general) Molinari straight out of the blocks last week with his usual consistent golf over the 4 rounds. In a weaker field this week at the Volvo Golf Championships and on a Colin Montgomerie designed track, he is the warranted favourite in my book.

Pick 2: Miguel Jimenez E/W @ 22/1 (general) Little is known about the Royal Golf Club in Bahrain as it's the inaugural Volvo Golf championship event but being a design by Montgomerie, I assume it would play to his own style of golf and noone more similar in style to Monty than Jimenez, who also had a decent start to the year last week.

Pick 3: Peter Hanson E/W @ 33/1 (general) Again following the theme of players who may be suited to a Colin Montgomerie designed track, Peter Hanson is 1 of the best on the European Golf Tour from tee to green. A little over priced IMO and each way value for the Volvo Golf championships.

Pick 4: Richard Green E/w @ 45/1 OR First Round Leader @ 45/1 (general) Left hander Green was 1 of the most accurate players on tour in 2010 and tends to start tournaments very quickly before 1 bad round costs him a chance of winning. He was quick out of the blocks last week and being out early Thursday morning at the Volvo, he should get the best of the conditions.

Sleeper Watch:

Pick 5: Ryhs Davies E/W @ 80/1 (Bet365) Very accurate and sensible player who does well on the shorter tracks. Probably the best putter on tour when on form and if the short stick works this week, he could come in under the radar. Very cool head when in contention.
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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