Sony Open Picks - Top Heavy Field

Followers of Nic's Picks will know that I generally stay away from the market leaders but I feel this week at the Sony Open that due to the competitive edge the front runners have after competing last week as well as the course layout, that backing the shorter prices in the Sony could prove the most profitable strategy.

Sony Open Picks

Pick 1: Jim Fuyrk E/W @ 12/1 (Bet365) Last year's player of the year could be in for another great season with many tipping him for a major. Last week at Kapalua wasn't really a course for him (despite a previous win there) but it's the opposite this week at the Sony Open. Fantastic ball striking and course plotting should see Fuyrk up near the top of the leaderboard.

Pick 2: Ernie Els E/W @ 14/1 (Bet365) Perfect course for Els with his length, accuracy and ball striking ability. Showed signs last week with a brilliant 2nd round that he's already raring to go this year and had a win recently in South Africa on a course not too dissimilar to Waialae ountry Club, venue for the Sony Open.

Pick 3: Matt Kuchar E/W @ 18/1 (Bet365) In my eyes, Kuchar was the best all round player on the PGA golf tour last year and has continued where he left off already this year. Brilliant ball striker, short iron player and putter, attributes this week's Sony Open winner will need.

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Pick 4: Carl Pettersson E/W @ 40/1 (general) Outstanding price on a man who was on form last week, finished in the top 10 in last year's Sony Open and who grades himself with an "A" on driving ability and putting.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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