Joburg Open Picks - Keep an Eye On Abery

Joburg Open Picks

Pick 1: Darren Clarke E/W @ 25/1 (Bet365) Clarke was 1 of the favourites last week in many people's book but I thought I'd give him a week to walk off the christmas turkey. This week's Joburg Open looks a better tournament for the Irish man. Fine record at Royal Joburg & Kensington including a 2nd place finish last year. Slow greens will suit.

Pick 2: Jaco Van Zyl E/W @ 20/1 (Bet365) Decent record on the course(s) and a pick from last week that I'll stick with after his top 5 finish for us. He looked in good form and could push hard at the Joburg Open this week.


Pick 3: JB Kruger E/W @ 30/1 (general) Great player on home soil and 1 I've been watching closely on the African golf swing. The putter wasn't working for him last week on the final day and that along with a double early on the home stretch prevented him from making a strong charge for the title

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Pick 4: Keite Horne E/W @ 66/1 (Totesport) Fine record in the Joburg Open, finishing joint 2nd last year with Darren Clarke and back on form last week at the Africa Open.

Sleeper Watch:

Pick 5: Warren Abery E/W @ 250/1 (Skybet) Has decent tournament and current form and could be 1 that comes in under the radar at the Joburg Open this week.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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