FA Cup Betting Tips - Upsets On The Cards?

As with every year in the FA Cup, there will be many surprising scores and the following are a few FA Cup matches I'm tipping as potentially good value betting opportunities:

FA Cup Betting Tips (Jan 8 - Jan 9)

FA Cup Tip 1: Sheff UTD v Aston Villa, Sheff UTD (draw no bet) @ 6/4 (Betfair) I was never a fan of Houllier's style of football and warned some Villa fans I know that he would be a terrible appointment. They are on a slippery slope and conceeding a lot of goals lately. Sheffield UTD's games have been filled with goals recently and I think Sheffield UTD v Aston Villa in the FA cup tomorrow could see plenty more. There's value with the home side getting most of them IMO. Ched Evans to score @ 5/2 looks a good betting tip. Over 2.5 goals currently odds against and a decent alternative bet.


FA Cup Tip 2: Stoke v cardiff - Cardiff to QUALIFY @ 37/19 (BWIN)I'm looking to Pulis to make multiple changes in this 1 which will upset the rhythm of Stoke. Cardiff are a side of Premier League standard and a great outside betting tip to progress to the next round of the FA cup. Bothroyd at 12/5 to score represents decent value. NOTE:May be wise to check the lineups before betting on this 1 as there are worries about a number of Cardiff's key men.

Click for a chance to WIN £1000 by predicting the first goal time in the FA Cup clash between Man City and Leicester

FA Cup Tip 3: Blackburn v QPR - QPR to QUALIFY @ 17/10 (Bwin) Could be a case of calm after the storm for Blackburn as they face championship opposition in the aftermath of a big midweek win against Liverpool. A decent chance they may well be caught cold with QPR flying high in the Championship and they must fancy themselves to cause an FA cup upset against generally shot shy blackburn. Watch out for Adel Taarabt who's been running the show for QPR. Taraabt anytime scorer @ 7/2 with PP.

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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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