Africa Open Picks - East London

Africa Open Championship Picks

Pick 1: Thomas Aiken E/W @ 16/1 (Bet365) A look at the leaderboard for last year's Africa Open at East London GC will show you complete domination by South African golfers. Aiken was 1 of them and had a real chance of victory only to make a poor decision towards the end. He will be out to make up for that this time round.

Pick 2: Jaco Van Zyl E/W @ 33/1 (Bet365) 1 of the African golf tour's best players and again, I feel the home players have a big advantage at the Africa Open this week. Decent performance last time out..


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Pick 3: Gareth Maybin E/W @ 33/1 (general) Links style feel at East London golf course with the sea breeze coming in off the coast. Premium will be on accuracy to handle the wind and stay away from the bush trouble and no better man that Maybin on such a short course (playing under 7,000 yards) to do that.

Pick 4: Robert Dinwiddie E/W @ 50/1 (general) Game really turned up a notch over the last 18 months and will be used to the expected breezy conditions. Top 10 at the south African Open championship a few weeks back.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.


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What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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