Scroll for course fit and progressive form models & info

OVER 2.5 Goals Betting Market Tips

Betting on the over 2.5 goals market is the bread and butter of my football profits. I've since moved onto trading the goal index markets but am writing this article to give you an insight into what you should be looking for if you are an over 2.5 goals backer.

Even when I was punting for fun years ago, I always found I had a significant edge on the betting odds offered on the over 2.5 goals markets in certain football matches. Matches I target for the over 2.5 goals are matches where the overs and unders are both priced close to evens. Numerous times per month I see games priced like this for the goal index betting that are in reality (rather than the probabilities suggested by the odds) approximately 70%-30% in favour of hitting the over 2.5 goals. Over many hundreds of football matches now, using this strategy, my results have shown that my estimated probabilities have been extremely accurate, hitting a strike rate of over 71%.

It makes no odds to the bookmakers that astute bettors can take advantage of this as 98% of the betting population will not be able to see that the match severely favours the over 2.5 rather than the under and thus the overround (margin) the odds compilers give themselves and the freedom to move their odds around as the money comes in, almost guarantees them a profit no matter what (Potentially damaging big hitters with a significant edge may have their account limited or closed). This is how the bookmakers operate and the above is a prime example of how both the bookmaker and the bettor can profit on the same markets.(I will write an article in the future explaining bookmaker margin (overround) and what it's all about).

A lot of the prices set by the experts are based largely on stats and this is how I can find an edge. Stats are secondary for me. Logic and variables are the key to successfully finding an edge in betting markets - Not many people will beat the expert statisticians at their own game. Don't worry - STATS LIE. What difference does it make if Fulham havn't scored in their last 4 away games? Were they playing WBA or Wigan in all those 4 games? See what I'm getting at...

I have spent so many hours playing and watching football that I can spot a potentially open match a mile off. There are 4 or 5 key things that I was alluding to above when I mentioned "certain football matches" that I look out for when backing the over 2.5 goals betting markets:

1. Loose Defense - Key defensive players injured, attacking fullbacks, disorganisation and teams who place emphasis on attacking are all factors that lead to gaps at the back. Weak defenders and low confidence are obvious factors.

2. 3 or 4 top strikers on show - An open game is not enough. The over 2.5 goals will not be hit enough times to overcome the odds longterm if there are not enough top quality finishers to put away the chances. This is a very significant point and 1 I learned the hard way.

3. Pace in attack - For plenty of clear cut chances/ one on ones in a game, pace in behind is key. Pace on the wings and in attack also stretches the game and opens it up.

4. Only 1 defensive midfielder - There's nothing worse to stifle a game than 2 teams playing with 2 defensive central midfielders. The quicker Roberto Mancini and the likes leave the Premier League, the better for the over 2.5 goals backers.

5. Emphasis on attack - Managers, how do they set out their teams? Benitez v Mourinho or Harry Redknapp v Pep Guardiola? 2 Defensive minded managers = boring game is the general rule. Watch Spurs this season, 75%+ of their games will have over 2.5 goals regardless of who they're playing.

All these and more are factors I look out for to gain an edge on over 2.5 goals betting odds and you should keep them in mind when sizing up your own bets on the overs.



Winning Tips? Click To Buy Me A Beer :) | Follow Us On Twitter | Tip Alerts By Email | Facebook Betting Group

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up To £200 in Free Bets @ Bet365 | £25 Free Bet @ Betfair

Fancy these tips? Share with friends using icons below:

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

  • European Tour (DP World)

  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides
  5. Who are the best sports handicappers?


  6. Golf majors: The Masters 2022 preview and picks - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.