NICSPICKS GOLF BETTING TIPS

New: Course Fit Manual 2022

The Tour Championship Picks - Rags To Riches

Last of the Fedex Cup events hits East Lake for the Tour Championship, scene of possibly the biggest success for Nic's Picks so far this time last year. The players in Question were Kenny Perry and Geoff Ogilvy and the market was the "To shoot lowest round" which I've just had confirmed will be offered again this year and I'll be waiting on that. Both Perry and Ogilvy fired the lowest round (-6) and at least 1 bookmaker paid out in full on both in last year's Tour Championship....

Huge prizes on offer this week where the small 30 man field can set themselves up for a long time with exemptions to certain events on offer for a good solid 4 rounds, Mickelson and Stricker can move closer to no. 1 without Woods playing not to mention the MASSIVE prize money on offer for the Fedex Cup alone. The top 5 all have it in their own hands and there is huge reward for the winner.

I'm going to mix it up this week with half the picks or thereabouts for the E/W win and half for the Lowest round of the tournament. Doing my study and checking my notes, plenty of players stand out. Zach Johnson is probably the main pick this week in terms of value and he fits the bill for both the aforementioned markets. He currently holds the course record 60 (-10) and is coming into form. Els and Fuyrk have very solid records here as does Adam Scott. Hardly surprising as they're all great ball strikers and that as well as GIR% will be key this week with the conditions set to be fast and firm.

The East Lake Course
Playing to a par of 70 the East Lake course stretches 7,154 yards long but with conditions set to be fast and firm after little rain in the area, I don't think length will be as much of an issue as it usually is here. There are 3 long par 3's that add to the yardage and par 3 performance could again be a factor (Zach Johnson is hanging around the top 20 in this stat too). Accuracy and ball striking will be more important and depending on the length of the rough, GIR% especially. In years past, short siding yourself at East Lake meant disaster and this is why the big hitters like Mickelson and Dustin J can be opposed this week for me.

Tour Championship East Lake Picks:

Pick 1: Zach Johnson E/W @ 25/1 (general) Ticks all the right boxes, coming into form and has gone low here before

Pick 2: Ryan Moore E/W @ 45/1 (general) Long and straight and general good all round game and I can't ignore the price off the back of a top 5 the other week

Pick 3: Jim Fuyrk E/W @ 20/1 (general) Steady Eddie has a solid record here as mentioned and over the disappointment of being disqualified 3 weeks back

To Shoot Lowest Round: (1/4 odds places 1-4)

Hunter Mahan (25) and Adam Scott (16) are the 2 I've had to leave out from my narrowed down shortlist for this market as the better value for me is with the following :

Pick 1: Luke Donald @ 25/1 E/W (Skybet) Great all round game and fantastic putter means he has all the attributes to go low around this track.

Pick 2: Geoff Ogilvy E/W @ 25/1 (PP) Course should set up similar to Memorial where Ogilvy can go low. Winner here in this market for me last year.

Picks 3: Tim Clark E/W @ 40/1 (Skybet) Ousted Mahan from the final pick this week due to his price. Fast and firm conditions should help Clark this week and his accurate game and good medium distance putting will give him every chance for a low individual round.

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Expected strokes gained course fit (xSGF) can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form.

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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  5. Golf majors: The Masters - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.