3rd round of the playoffs this week as theFedex cup hits Cog Hill for the BMW Championships. The field has been cut down to 70 with some big names like Harrington, Glover and the woeful Anthony Kim set to miss out this week....

Woods looks to be getting back on track in a tournament he will defend this week but this fact, it seems, has priced Stricker and Mickelson IMO a little bit higher than they should be in only a 70 man field, half of which IMO has little or no chance of victory in this year's BMW Championships. Luke Donald was another looking great last week but he went off track a bit towards the end and at only 30/1 and the fact that the Cog Hill course is a long 1, I'll have to over look him this week.

Cog Hill Course
Recently renovated by Rees Jones, host to this Championship in most years since the early 90's and playing to a par of 71 at almost 7,400 yards long, it's mainly the longer hitters I'll be looking at here this week. Course is host to 6 water hazards and greens are large so good accurate Iron play is a premium

BMW Championship Picks

Pick 1: Steve stricker E/W @ 14/1 (general) Stricker looks on the edge of victory right now and loves playoff time. Looking for that no. 1 spot in the world rankings

Pick 2: Phil Mickelson E/W @ 18/1 (Sportingbet)Desperate to be able to call himself no.1 in the world and game in decent shape.

Pick 3: Zach Johnson @ 35/1 (general) Pressure off after he just received a captain's pick for the Ryder Cup and started last week on fire only to fade a little. Maybe his mind was on other things but not anymore!

Pick 4: Stewart Cink @ 50/1 (general) Same boat as Johnson, Cink also received a pick and one that will benefit from playing alot of tournaments in a row

Sleeper Pick: John Senden @ 110/1 (Boylesports) Looking strong the last few weeks in strong fields and has course form

Winning Golf Betting Tips:

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Golf Player Profiles

Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
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  6. Golf majors: The Masters 2022 preview and picks - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.