3rd round of the playoffs this week as theFedex cup hits Cog Hill for the BMW Championships. The field has been cut down to 70 with some big names like Harrington, Glover and the woeful Anthony Kim set to miss out this week....

Woods looks to be getting back on track in a tournament he will defend this week but this fact, it seems, has priced Stricker and Mickelson IMO a little bit higher than they should be in only a 70 man field, half of which IMO has little or no chance of victory in this year's BMW Championships. Luke Donald was another looking great last week but he went off track a bit towards the end and at only 30/1 and the fact that the Cog Hill course is a long 1, I'll have to over look him this week.

Cog Hill Course
Recently renovated by Rees Jones, host to this Championship in most years since the early 90's and playing to a par of 71 at almost 7,400 yards long, it's mainly the longer hitters I'll be looking at here this week. Course is host to 6 water hazards and greens are large so good accurate Iron play is a premium

BMW Championship Picks

Pick 1: Steve stricker E/W @ 14/1 (general) Stricker looks on the edge of victory right now and loves playoff time. Looking for that no. 1 spot in the world rankings

Pick 2: Phil Mickelson E/W @ 18/1 (Sportingbet)Desperate to be able to call himself no.1 in the world and game in decent shape.

Pick 3: Zach Johnson @ 35/1 (general) Pressure off after he just received a captain's pick for the Ryder Cup and started last week on fire only to fade a little. Maybe his mind was on other things but not anymore!

Pick 4: Stewart Cink @ 50/1 (general) Same boat as Johnson, Cink also received a pick and one that will benefit from playing alot of tournaments in a row

Sleeper Pick: John Senden @ 110/1 (Boylesports) Looking strong the last few weeks in strong fields and has course form
Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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