Golf Betting - The Barclays Picks

First of this year's playoff events kicks off this week as the stars of the PGA Tour tee it up at Ridgewood Country Club as we try to add to a great run in the golf betting on Nic's Picks and there are 3 stand outs for me towards the top end of the market, none of those 3 however are Woods, Mickelson or McIlroy......

News has just leaked that Woods and his wife are going through a divorce and it's hard to see how his mind will be on this event. Mickelson and McIlroy as usual have no value in them as it's impossible to predict how they'll do in any given event. Steve Stricker didn't perform as expected in his home state at the PGA but maybe there was too much pressure and he almost won this event for us last year and once again, he will be the headline pick.

As mentioned, the course returns to Ridgewood CC this year after Liberty National in 2009 and from my research, patience, course management and top quality ball striking will be key this week.

Ridgewood C.C course:

At just over 7,300 yards, par 71, the the winning score here 2 years ago was just -8. No surprise to see Sergio Garcia and Vigay Singh (as well as Kevin sutherland) finished at the top if ball striking is a premium. Greens are set to run at 12 on the stimp and I'll be looking towards the older more experienced pros in this one.

The Barclays Picks:

Pick 1: Steve Stricker @ 20/1 (general) Stricks didn't perform to the best of his abilities in the PGA but he loves this time of year, has a good record in the play offs and is ready to win again after injury.

Pick 2: Jim Fuyrk @ 28/1 (general), Perfect match for this course. Ticks all the boxes attribute wise and in fine form.

Pick 3: Matt Kuchar @ 40/1 (Boylesports) Probably the form man of the last month or so and only a bad final round in his last 2 big events cost him. Up there at the top of the all round ranking stats.

Sleeper Watch

Pick 4: David Toms @ 80/1 (general), Returning to form and another with great course management skills. Full of confidence and can plot his way around Ridgewood.

Pick 5: Justin Leonard E/W @ 66/1 (general), Went missing for a year or 2 but now he's back. Good finish here 2 years ago and another who the course suits. Again, full of confidence after almost winning last week.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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