NETHERLANDS V SPAIN BETTING TIPS (World Cup July 11): Hardly surprising that an event as big as The Netherlands v Holland in the World Cup final has little or no value in most of the main markets but I've spotted some good outside value betting tips in the less popular markets...

Arjen Robben getting his opponents booked has been a bit of a theme on Nic's Picks and while Skybet continue pricing up his direct opponent at 10/3 and betting prices as big as that, that theme will continue. Capdevilla will be the man in question this time and as usual Sneijder and co will look to feed Robben at every opportunity.

For Spain, Pedro or Torres is the question for Del Bosque and if he sticks with Pedro, the lethal finisher looks a great value betting tip @ 4/1 on the exchanges to hit the back of the net. He showed us for Barca last season what he is capable of in front of goal and looked very eager to score in the semi final.

We will round up the world cup with an overpriced fun bet where Paddypower are offering a "First BBC commentary Cliche" market. I've had success with these in the past and "First time winner" @ 12/1 is the standout value bet for me here.

Selections Offering Value: ( % = My estimated win expectation)

REMEMBER: You need to open up a Betfair Exchange betting account to get the biggest odds and maximise your winnings from a lot of tips on Nic's Picks.

Outside value bet: Pedro anytime goal scorer @ 4/1 (Betfair), 35%
Specials bet: Capdevilla to be booked @ 10/3 (Skybet)
Specials bet: First BBC commentary Cliche (during game) - "First time winner" @ 12/1 (Paddypower)

Thank Us With A Beer

Thoughts on Nic's Picks or any soccer predictions of your own for this week's World Cup football matches? Why not discuss them in our Facebook Betting group | Twitter

Bookmark and Share Share
Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Best for Golf Betting

Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides
  5. Who are the best sports handicappers?

  6. GOLF MAJORS 2024: The Masters - US PGA Championship - US Open - Open Championship