Golf Place Betting - Top 10 / Top 20

In this section I will point out selections I see as over priced to place either in the Top 10 or Top 20 in various golf tournaments across the PGA Tour and the European Tour golf circuit.

I will be using unit stakes of 1-5pts depending on the odds and the actual probabilities I estimate to maximise value on each golf place bet and optimise bankroll management strategy.Please note that selections (taken individually) will be outside chances. A strike rate of only 30% will bring in the profits long term at these prices.

Main Sportsbooks I will be using are: ExtraBet (who pay full odds for ties), Paddypower and Betfair Exchange.



July / August Record
Staked: 49pts Returned: 29.5pts Profit: - 19.5pts


Viking Classic: 3pts Todd Hamilton top 20 finish @ 19/4 (Extrabet) Hamilton in fantastic form in Europe recently and he seems to have flown under the radar after crossing back over the pond. In what is a modest field, if he plays like he has beenm the last few weeks, he's superb value for a top 20 at that price. May even contend for the win @ 150/1.

Note: I'm struggling to find good value picks in the bigger events so it will be mainly a watching brief in this market for the remainder of the season.

BMW Championship 3pts John Senden Top 20 @ 11/4 (PP) Senden has current and course form and looks good value this week and even worth a small E/W bet

KLM Open 3pts David Lynn Top 20 @ 11/4 (Extrabet) Lynn has a tremendous record in this event on the old course that they are returning to this week after 5 years for the KLM Open and this seems why he's under the bookie's radar and 11/4 is too big


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Deutche Bank Championship 2.5 pts each on Stewart Cink and Cabrera to finish in the top 10 @ 6/1 - Course will suit both and both will benefit from a run of consecutive tournaments. Cabrera has standout record here. Results: Both T18

Omega European Masters - 3pts Thongchai Jaidee Top 20 finish @ 2/1 (general) Long and straight drivers will do well here and Jaidee looked to be suited to this course when I was watching him last year. Result: T51

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Longshots: 1.5pts Shiv Kapur (Johnnie Walker) and 1.5 pts Garret Willis (Barclays) To finish in the top 20 @ 11/2 and 5/1 respectively (Extrabet) Kapur is finding some form and tends to be streaky. Also has course form. The stats of Willis jump out at me here being very high up in ball striking, driving accuracy, GIR amongst other things and he already has numerous top 20's this season including last week.

The Barclays 2.5pts David Toms top 20 finish @ 7/2 (PP) I'll stick with Toms after last week as confidence is at highest in a few years and his good course plotting will be key around Ridgewood. Fairways and greens should see him up towards the top of the leaderboard.

Johnnie Walker - 3pts Anthony Wall top 20 finish @ 7/4 (Extrabet) Wall is a very consistent and underrated player when on form and finished very well last week. Has course form and could challenge here.

Johnnie Walker - 3pts Jimenez Top 10 finish @ 3/1 (PP) Paddypower currently go 3/1 on Jimenez for a top 10 finish which looks like a pricing error to me but 1 they couldn't pass off as such but it won't last long. Jimenez has called off plans to go to a family wedding to play here and the Ryder cup hopeful is one to watch this week. Game is suited to the course.

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Wyndham championship 3pts Martin Laird Top 20 finish @ 12/5 (PP) Laird has been playing some good golf of late with a top 20 at Bridgestone and a good performance at the PGA. He also has course form and in what is a relatively weak field, he could contend come Sunday. Streaky player. Result: T34

Wyndham championship 2pts David Toms Top 10 @ 9/2 (Extrabet) Finding some form and course should suit down to the ground. Very steady player. Result: 2nd

Czech Open 3pts Michael Hoey Top 20 finish @ 7/4 Extrabet. I was hoping for better odds but since he's the guy I've had my eye on all week and before for the Czech Open, I still can't ignore him at that price. In great current form and has the attributes needed to tackle this course. Result: T43

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A bad Sunday last week saw Lucas Glover and Ernie Els both fall out of their placings and a major this week is hardly the tournamnet you want to try and turn things around but 1 man stands out for me as well as a couple of big over priced longshots:

USPGA Championship 2pts Angel Cabrera Top 20 finish @ 4/1 (PP) Loves the big occasion and well used to this type of course and conditions. Warmed up nicely last week and could be in the running for the trophy come Sunday. Result: M/C

USPGA Championship
1pt each on Rory Sabbitini @ 11/2 (Extrabet), Charles Howell @ 8/1 (Skybet) and Jerry Kelly @ 10/1 (Betfair) to finish in the top 20. Howell in in decent form and recovered after a terrible start last week and prefers the role of the underdog. He also had a top 20 here in 2004. Kelly thrives on attention and he'll get plenty from his home crowd this week off the back of a tied 3rd at Turning Stone. Sabbitini had the tournament at Turning Stone in his hands last week only for a capitulation late Saturday and could be an outsider to watch this week.

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WGC Bridgestone Invitational 2pts Ernie Els Top 10 finish @ 10/3 (Totesport) The other books are about right on Els averaging about 5/2 but Totesport give slight value pricing him up at 10/3. His steady game will be key around here with length and placement off the tee vital as well as scrambling skills. Result: T22

WGC Bridgestone Invitational 3pts Lucas Glover Top 20 finish @ 11/4 (Extrabet) Long and straight is what we are looking for at Firestone and Glover stands out with those attributes. Obviously has the head (and talent)for big events now after major success. Result: T22

Turning Stone Resort 1.5pts Matthew Goggin Top 10 finish @ 9/1 (Stanjames) Showed signs of some form last week with a decent 4 days in the Greenbrier. Good record at Atunyote apart from last year when he withdrew after day 1. Can be inspired by compatriot Appleby's success last week. Result: T52

Greenbrier Classic - 1pt John Daly top 20 finish @ 12/1 (skybet) Massive price on the big man who is showing some good form at the moment. Skybet are almost double the prioce of other firms. Fits the profile for this course albeit a huge outsider due to his temperament. Result: 77th

3 Irish Open - 1.5pts Brett Rumford top 20 finish @ 10/3 (Paddypower) Rumford a top short game player and course could play into his hands off the back of a decent tournament last week. Result: T9th

Greenbrier Classic - 2pts Kevin Streelman Top 20 finish @ 5/1 (skybet) It's big hitting birdie makers I'm after this week in America and Streelman with his driving distance average of 290 yards and 4th in the birdie average stat certainly fits the bill. Result: M/C

3 Irish Open - 2pts Bradley Dredge top 10 finish @ 5/1 (Stanjames) Dredge has a great record in Ireland in recent years and if it wasn't for a few disastrous holes in The Barclays and the Open Championship, he'd have been challenging for victory. Game in good shape. Result: M/C

Nordea Scandinavian Masters - 2pts Robert Rock Top 10 @ 3/1 (Paddypower) Rock's game is in full flow just now and confidence is sky high after his Open performance. Will be looking to challenge this week. Result: M/C

RBC Canadian Open - 1.5pts Graham DeLaet Top 20 @ 9/2 (Paddypower) DeLaet had a decent tournament off the radar in tough conditions in Reno last week. He actually shot an amazing third round of -10 only to fall away on Sunday. He returns home this weekend and can hopefully take advantage of the jet lag of some of the bigger names coming across from ST. Andrews. Result: M/C

4 comments:

  1. This sounds interesting! been following your picks for a while now and will keep an eye on these. Keep up the great work!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks Tim. Been meaning to break up the blog into sections for a while now and backing outsiders in these markets has been quite profitable in the past.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hey Nic, the place bets seem to be tough going at the moment but you are doing well with your win and e/w bets! Congrats on getting Kaymer in the PGA. Do you like any of the Ryder Cup markets or think you will post any plays on the event? I was pleased to see Molinari get a wildcard at a 10/1 shot and hope to see some more value in the event! Regards, Tim

    ReplyDelete
  4. Yep, I hope to have a preview up early next week. I'm looking at McDowell E/W for top points scorer (18/1), amongst other things...

    ReplyDelete

Any thoughts or fancies to share, then feel free... all feedback welcome

2015 Selected Golf Winners
Frysdotcom Open: Emiliano Grillo 50/1 (win)

British Masters: Matt Fitzpatrick 33/1 (win)

US PGA Championship: Jason Day 14/1 (win)

Czech Open: Thomas Pieters 90/1 (win)

European Masters: Danny Willett 16/1 (win)

European Masters: Anirban Lahiri 100/1 (Place T10)

Crowne Plaza: Chris Kirk 35/1 (win)

Shell Houston: JB Holmes 33/1 (win)


Trophee Hassan: M.Lundberg 250/1 (top 10)

Tshwane Open: Craig Lee 150/1 (top 10)

Puerto Rico: Alex Cejka 100/1 (win)

Humana: Justin Thomas 15/2 (top 10)

HTOC: Patrick Reed 22/1 (win)

Sony Open: Rory Sabbatini (FRL, top 10)

Abu Dhabi: M. Kaymer 16/1 (place)

Abu Dhabi: B-H An 9/1 (top 20)

CIMB Classic: R. Karlberg 125/1 (win FRL)

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