Time for the biggest golf event of the year as the Open Championship hits St. Andrews - The home of golf. Major no. 3 kicks off on Thursday and as usual for the majors, there's little or no value towards the top end of the market....

Priced up nice and short as they're going to be backed regardless, the world's best golfers are mainly terrible prices at the Open Championship this week. In fact, regardless of price only Justin Rose who's in the form of his life actually really stands out for me. A lot of the market leaders have been struggling with injury or form this year and I wouldn't be too confident in any of them including Woods.

Irish bookmakers Paddypower and Boylesports though do pay 7 places and I'm going to try and help you take advantage of that with mainly bigger odds picks and look for some place value. Woods' three ball is a grouping I'm very interested in with the aforementioned Rose and also my dark horse this week, Villegas, both playing with Tiger. Rose as mentioned has never played better and he's looked highly impressive in the last month and Villegas is mistaken for a 'bomber' but he's got every shot in his bag that will be needed in the high winds this week at the Open Championship.

The St. Andrews Course
Playing to a yardage of 7279 par 72, the links course will hardly be playing too long with the extra bounce on the fairways but with winds up to 50mph early this week, the course is virtually "unplayable" as described by the likes of Woods and Stenson. Along with the wind the course will be set up with the usual characteristics of the British Open and a very tough test of all round golf.

It may be worth noting players who excel at the Alfred Dunhill Links championship which is played across 3 courses including St. Andrews but the course this week will be much tougher.

Open championship Selections Offering value (7 places)

Pick 1: Justin Rose E/W @ 25/1 (PP) Never played better and confidence flying just now. Will look to impress playing partner Tiger in early rounds.

Pick 2: Camillo Villegas @ 70/1 (PP) Like Rose, Villegas will be eager to impress Tiger and he also has the ability to shape the ball and play different sorts of shots. Will be able to keep the ball under the wind this week.

Pick 3: Paul Casey E/W @ 40/1 (Boylesports) Casey is under the radar slightly this week but he's been practising hard and upping his workload and focus (in his own words) and sees this as the ultimate goal. Has the mentality and game for the big occasion.

Pick 4: Jim Fuyrk E/W @ 40/1 (Boylesports)Strong performer in the Open and been practising over this side of the pond leading up to the event. Short set up gives him as good a chance as anyone.

Sleeper Pick
Ryan Moore E/W @ 125/1 (PP) Fantastic driver of the golf ball and competent all round game. Has been getting increasingly better in his last few tournaments and almost won last time out. Confidence high and a huge talent.
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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Angles and Edges: a journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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