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3 Irish Open Picks / Preview

Golf Betting has been hard to predict in recent weeks with the British Open taking centre stage and certain tournaments being played on courses I know little about and no course form to go on and it's much the same this week in Ireland as the European Tour heads to the 3 Irish Open in Killarney. It's been many years since the 3 Irish Open golf championship was played at this course...

So again with no course form to go on, it will be a tough one to call but 1 man that's playing solid golf at the moment is Welshman Bradley Dredge who has been over priced by the sportsbooks. He may not know this course very well but he loves coming to Ireland with multiple top 10's in the Irish Open in recent years.

Leading the betting is Rory McIlroy and hardly surprising and we'll just have to hope he gets off to a bad start or he could run away with it in what is a very average field. He can't be backed @ 8/1.

Of the other home challengers, Harrington is having a bad time of it at the moment and Graeme McDowell is still suffering (as he's said himself) from the aftermath of his huge success in the US Open. Shane Lowry will defend but isn't worth backing at 40/1, Clarke is in decent form but falls into the same category but 1 man who may be worth watching out for is rank outsider Colm Moriarty who did himself no harm at all in the Open Championship.

The Course
Everything I know about this course is directly from the official European Tour golf website and it seems like it will be a relatively simple course. Playing 7161 yards to a par of 71, fairways are average width with rough expected to be not very penal. Mixture of tree lined and exposed holes with slow running greens. Flat course with water coming into play on 11 holes.

3 Irish Open selections offering value (Boylesports and PP playing 6 places)

Pick 1: Francesco Molinari E/W @ 20/1 (Boylesports) Didn't have a great Open but hardly surprising as putting is his weakness. Will be looking to bounce back strong as he tries to secure a ryder cup spot.

Pick 2: Ross Fisher E/W @ 20/1 (PP) Finally found some form this season and can take advantage of his long and straight driving around this track.

Pick 3: Bradley Dredge E/W @ 50/1 (Boylesports) As mentioned, great record in Ireland and in decent current form.

Pick 4: Rhys Davies E/W @ 33/1 (Boylesports) Very impressed with Davies this year. Great chance for the Ryder Cup and if the short stick is working to standard on this course, expect him to be there or there abouts.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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