Share SOUTH AFRICA V MEXICO Betting Tips (World Cup June 11): The World Cup 2010 kicks off on Friday with hosts South Africa entertaining a flamboyant Mexico side and you'll see that as usual in big international tournaments, the bookmakers tend to side with the unders in the early stages. I'll be tipping against it and looking to take advantage of this once again as the over 2.5 goals betting in a lot of the early matches can be backed at odds as high as 13/8 in some books....

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South Africa V Mexico falls right into this bracket. It was priced up at 13/8 for over 2.5 golas but cut into best price 6/4 currently. Mexico have looked full of flair and attacking threat in the build up friendlies with Javier Hernandez (UTD's new signing) looking a huge find for them, scoring 3 goals in the last 3 games. Both teams are not great in defensive departments and South Africa carry a threat of their own from players such as Steven Pienaar and watch out for Bernard Parker in this tournament as he looks to fill the boots of Benni McCarthy and the hosts look to progress further than everyone expects.

Selections Offering Value: ( % = My estimated win expectation)

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Pick 1: Over 2.5 goals @ 6/4 (Betfair), 55%
Pick 2: Javier Hernandez anytime scorer @ 12/5 (Bet365), 40-45% | Javier Hernandez brace @ 16/1 (Paddypower)

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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