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GOLF BETTING: US OPEN PICKS

Share The US Open, 2nd of this year's golf majors is upon us in what will be a great week of sport and prices are being cut fast - the reason why this post is a little earlier than usual. Some firms will be paying 6 places if you want to be patient but you may be better off taking the early prices....

The US Open will set up differently to most majors in that it will play very short. The Pebble Beach course will only just play over 7,000 yards and that means the 'bombers' won't have the usual advantage this time round. Woods and Mickelson head the betting as per usual but with the rough set to be unbelievably tough and thick from what I've heard, I'll be avoiding any players that are errant off the tee.

The Pebble Beach Course
The course itself holds an annual event (along with other courses) in the form of the AT&T Pro am but it will be a totally different ball game this time with the way they will have it set up. Word around the golfing world is that this will be some of the hardest rough to play from in recent times, both along the fairways and around the greens. Add to that the likely windy weather and even though the course is short, a severe test is in store and from what I hear, it's going to be very tough to score under par over 4 rounds. All these factors lead me towards the shorter more accurate hitters for my US Open betting Picks. 'Fairways and greens' is the way to go for this year's 2nd major.

US Open Selections Offering Value (Some firms will be offering 6 places)

Pick 1: Lee Westwood E/W 14/1 (general) 14/1 may not look like value to some but for me, he should be installed as favourite ahead of Woods and Mickelson. Currently he is building up well by contending in Memphis and his driving ability will be key round this track

Pick 2: Luke Donald E/W @ 40/1 (general) Donald has been playing some superb golf over in Europe recently and I've been monitoring him closely. He rarely makes a mistake, hitting most fairways and greens and he's 1 of the very best putters there are across both tours.

Pick 3: Steve Stricker E/W @ 33/1 (general) Showing signs of a return to form after injury and 33/1 is a price I just have to take here on a player of Stricker's quality.

Pick 4: Jim Fuyrk E/W @ 33/1 (general) Playing some top stuff this year and a recent winner. If it's fairways and greens you're after, Fuyrk's your man. More than competent all round game and his experience could be big advantage.

Pick 5: Dustin Johnson E/W @ 40/1 (general) The course set up as mentioned will be different but I still can't ignore Johnson's form on this course. He bagged Nic's Picks a 25/1 winner here earlier in the year and not many know their way around the course more.

If you're betting Top 10's in the golf, you'll generally get best prices at Betfair or Extrabet (who pay out in full for ties).

Sleeper(one to watch)
Will be very much under the radar next week but followers of the European Golf Tour will know all about Rhys Davies and what a player he will most probably become. I havn't seen a putter like him since Tiger Woods and he has an old head on young shoulders. Currently 150/1 in some books and you should get great prices on Top 10's and 20's come Tuesday.


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Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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