MANCHESTER CITY V ASTON VILLA BETTING TIPS

Share MANCHESTER CITY V ASTON VILLA BETTING TIPS (Premier League May 1): 1 of the biggest mistakes in the transfer market last summer was undoubtedly the transfer of Richard Dunne from Manchester City to Aston Villa and the honey monster will be determined to remind Man City just what they're missing while helping their own chances for a Champions League finish....

Doubts over the fitness of Adebayor for this one which could see Bellamy and Tevez in a 2 man attack. Agbonlahor and Carew tipped to start up top for Villa and with so much pace in the attack for both teams (Johnson, Young and Downing also), this game promises corners. The bookies are aware of that though with some putting the line at 13 or even 14 so I won't be going near. What it does throw up though is plenty of opportunity for Richard Dunne to score against his old team if Villa get those corners and Paddypower go a tasty 12/1 on that longshot. Carlos Tevez is still in the running for the Top Goalscorer gong and with this game being potentially open due to being a must win for Villa, I can see Tevez scoring at least once and he's good value on the betting exchanges.

Selections Offering Value: ( % = My estimated win expectation, please note)

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Pick 1: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.87 (Betfair), 65-70%
Pick 2: Carlos Tevez anytime goal scorer @ 8/5 (Betfair), 55%
Pick 3: Richard Dunne anytime scorer @ 12/1 (Paddypower), low %

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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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