LIVERPOOL V CHELSEA BETTING TIPS

Share LIVERPOOL V CHELSEA BETTING TIPS (Premier League May 2): Plenty of people seem to be of the opinion that this game is going to be a bit of a stroll in the park for Chelsea at Anfield tomorrow. Total rubbish. Liverpool may have nothing much to play for in terms of the league but any game at Anfield against one of the "Big Four" is a big game and anyone tipping Chelsea at an odds on betting price is making a bad call. No matter what happens on this occasion, it's still a losing bet in the longrun.....

Whether it will do UTD a favour or not will have absolutely no bearing on this game either, no matter what some people are saying. I'd advise you to leave the win-draw-win and/or handicap markets completely alone in this one as anything could happen. The value in this game is on Steven Gerrard at a whopping 29/10 to get on the scoresheet. He's got the taste for goals again after a brace against Burnley last week and will be keen to show his best against the best. I wouldn't be surprised to see a spot kick for Liverpool tomorrow either and he will take it. Another bet that catches my eye is bet365 offering a line of 10 in the corner betting. Over 10 at 5/6 is a baffling price for me, given Chelsea's corner count on the road and Liverpool's at Anfield.

Selections Offering Value: ( % = My estimated win expectation, please note)

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Pick 1: Corners over 10 @ 5/6 (Bet365),70%
Pick 2: Steven Gerrard anytime scorer @ 29/10 (Expekt), 40%

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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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