Share Good week last week for the golf betting on Nic's Picks with places for big prices Crane in the Players and Colsaerts in the BMW Italian Open meaning a tasty profit. This week the Valero Texas Open is the event in question and the field is relatively weak as most of the big names take a short holiday. The Valero Texas Open has ended it's 15 year association with La Cantera which is a shame as I had 4 players pegged to do really well. Never mind though, I've done my study on the new course - The TPC San Antonio and have narrowed down my shortlist....

Leading the betting is Ernie Els who I won't even contemplate at such short odds. He's had no real form since his 2 wins earlier in the season. Zach Johnson is the defending champion who has actually won this event the last 2 years running but this new course couldn't differ any more than La Cantera so I'll overlook him as well. A man regaining some form as he looks to get back to where he was a few years back is Adam Scott. Decent value price of 22/1 and he has the game to do well on a course that plays over 7,500 yards. He'll be the headline pick this week.

The course - TPC San Antonio
Total driving and GIR will be the premium this week. It's a tree lined track that as mentioned plays over 7,500 yards. Bunkers line the fairways and accuracy is a must. Greens are large and undulating so the shorter the club for your approach shots, the better. Par 5's are all very long and big hitters may also have to lay up depending on wind direction.

Selections Offering Value

Pick 1: Adam Scott E/W @ 22/1 (general) Scott has sorted out some of his driving problems and has the current form to tackle this course. Obviously 1 of the best in the field and very competent in windy conditions.

Pick 2: Freddy Jacobsen E/W @ 35/1 (general), Top 10 finish @ 10/3 (general) I can't ignore the form he showed last week. He was driving the ball really well and is always fantastic around the greens

Pick 3: Charley Hoffman E/W @ 40/1 (Boylesports), Top 10 finish @ 4/1 (general) Rival for headline pick this week. 2 poor final rounds in last 2 outings mean his price isn't as short as it should be. He's playing really well and I quite fancy him to run away with a tournament this year when it all clicks. Could be this 1!

Pick 4: Jimmy Walker E/W @ 140/1 (Bet365), Top 10 finish @ 18/1 (William Hill) Watch out for local man Walker this week .Should know the course very well and has the length to tackle it. Top 25 last week at the players and this is a vastly inferior field.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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Angles and Edges: a journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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