Share All the golf talk this week has been about Rory Mcilroy who celebrates his 21st birthday today after his maiden win on the PGA golf tour in some style. He plans on limiting his celebrations tonight in the build up to The Players Championship and the way he played over last weekend, it's a no brainer to back him E/W this week with most betting outlets going places 1-6. Mcilroy finally hit the heights of his expectation at Quail Hollow and he fancies the Players Championship for back to back PGA tour golf successes.

Woods and Mickelson sit on top of the market and can't be separated by much after Tiger's terrible performance last week. Local man Jim Fuyrk (Who I really fancy this week) is the only other player ahead of Mcilroy in the betting. The Players Championship is known as "The Fifth Major" and is 1 all the players want to win. As usual, the field has all the world's best playing (Except Steve Stricker who pulled out through Injury)

Check out: Golf Predictor Model, the ever increasingly popular tool I sometimes use to narrow down my shortlists

The Course - TPC Sawgrass
Playing not overly long at a yardage of just over 7,200 to a par of 72, the TPC Sawgrass is a serious test of pretty much every aspect of your golf game. Conditions are usually fast and firm and accuracy, positioning and experience are all key around this track. Scrambling is of utmost importance. Wind is usually a factor and players with the ability to keep the ball flight low can benefit. The course has 1 of the best finishes in golf with a reachable par 5, the infamous island green short par 3 17th and a very tough par 4 to finish. Expect a nailbiting finish come Sunday.

Stay tuned for final Players Championship golf betting picks.......

Selections Offering Value (all places 1-6)

Pick 1: Rory McIlroy E/W @ 22/1 (general), As mentioned, how can you possibly ignore the form he showed last Saturday and Sunday. -16 through 2 rounds at Quail Hollow is something probably not even Tiger could do!

Pick 2: Jim Fuyrk E/W @ 22/1 (general) Fantastic putting and scrambling stats, in great form and will have a lot of support here.

Pick 3: Luke Donald E/W @ 50/1 (General), Top 10 finish @ 5/1(general) Decent record here, having his best season in a long time after injury and tops the scrambling stats. Likes fast greens.

Pick 4: Ben Crane E/W @ 80/1 (General), Top 20 finish @ 3/1 (General) Another having a good season with a win to his name already. Top 25 at the Masters and also a man that features regularly on the leaderboard here

Pick 5: Ross Fisher E/W @ 135/1 (Stanjames), Top 20 finish @ 11/2 (Stanjames) Fisher hasn't been in form this year but he had a decent 4 rounds last week and this is the type of course that could kick him into gear. Loves tough courses and his total driving stats give him an edge anywhere.

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Thoughts on Nic's Picks or any golf predictions of your own for this week's Players Championship or BMW Italian Open? Why not discuss them in our Facebook Betting group | Twitter

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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Angles and Edges: a journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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