Share It's a seriously strong field this week at the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial on the PGA golf tour. Scene of a playoff loss last year for Nic's Picks and Tim Clark, the field at the Crowne Plaza Invitational this year has star names a long way down the betting......

Focusing more on rank outsiders for places is the way to go for me this week in the betting although there are a few I have to back closer the top end of the market for various reasons. Tim Clark being the standout. He owns this course. As mentioned, he only lost in a playoff last year and he had some awful luck with an approach shot late on, hitting the bottom of the pin and spinning back 20 yards and off the green. Mickelson heads the betting and has a good record here but on a track like this, there will be plenty of trees to keep him occupied! Local boys this week include Rod Pampling, Chad Campbell, Ryan Palmer and last week's winner Jason Day.

The Course
Very tight and relatively short treelined track at Colonial. Greens are narrow and protected by bunkers but no real rough around them. Key round here is to hit the fairways but not only the fairways, you need to hit the right part of the fairways and plot your way around if you are to get close to the pins. Stand up Tim Clark, David Toms, Zach Johnson, Brian Gay and the rest. Experience is key here which is why I'll be plumping for the likes of these and the locals.

Crowne Plaza Invitational Selections Offering Value

Pick 1: Tim Clark E/W @ 22/1 (general) Course couldn't set up any better for Tim clark and with the confidence of finally breaking through for his first PGA Tour win at the Players, he could be the 1 to watch. Fabulous course record.

Pick 2: Brian Gay E/W @ 40/1 (general), Top 10 @ 5/1 (Betfair Exchange) Fantasic weekend last week and another with a good record round here. Hardly suprising as it suits his game down to the ground also.

Pick 3: Steve Marino E/W @ 50/1 (general) Top 10 finish @ 5/1 (Betfair Exchange) Another with a standout record at Colonial, the golf course sets up to suit his fade game.

Rank Outsiders:

Pick 4: Tim Petrovic E/W @ 125/1 (general), Top 20 finish @ 19/4 (Extrabet) Finding form on the PGA tour in recent weeks and won the Open qualifying on Tuesday in a strong field. Has some course form also at Colonial.

Pick 5: Ryan Palmer E/W @ 150/1 (general), Top 20 @ 6/1 (Extrabet) Local favourite has the knowledge round this track and course form would suggest that. Hit a 150/1 winner for me a couple of years back and maybe he can do it again! Found serious form 2 weeks ago shooting a low round -8 on the Sunday. Missed the cut last week but he doesn't like that course.

Pick 6: Martin Laird E/W @ 200/1 (general), Top 20 @ 7/1 (Paddypower) Not too far behind Petrovic in the British Open qualifying and totally buzzing as he will get to play in his dream tourmament. He can ride the form and confidence this week in Colonial. Very underrated player as prices would suggest

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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