Share Focus turns to the European Tour after a great week last week in the PGA Tour golf betting. It's the flagship event this side of the pond as the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth takes center stage. This year some of the star names will return to the BMW PGA Championship field including the likes of Padraig Harrington who abandoned it claiming the greens were awful....

He wasn't the only 1 and this week's Wentworth field is one of the strongest the European Tour has seen in a while. Padraig himself is carrying an injury that he will have surgery on soon and he's not the only one as Ian Poulter is also nursing a neck problem. Ross Fisher is the tournament pro at the redesigned (by Ernie els) Wentworth course and will be looking to get his season going. Paul McGinley who also lives nearby has a decent record here and could be an outsider for a top 20.

The Course
As mentioned, Ernie Els has been let loose this past year to sort out the course and mainly the greens, all of which were dug up and redone. The course is medium length but a key for me this week is the length of most of the par 4's. Quite a few play over 460 yards giving an obvious advantage to the bigger hitters. Fairways are generally quite wide too so a much improved Alvaro Quiros springs to mind. Ball shaping off the tee and ability to deal with swirling winds will also be a factor this week.

BMW PGA Championship Selections Offering Value

(Places 1-6)

Pick 1: Ernie Els E/W @ 14/1 (general) Obvious advantage being the course redesigner and played really well last week in America.

Pick 2: Charl Schwartzel E/W @ 25/1 (general) Has course form and much improved this year with 2 victories to his name. Was watching him here last year and course seemed to set up nicely for his game

Pick 3: Martin Kaymer E/W @ 20/1 (general) The Players Championship came too soon for him after surgery but he should be raring to go now. Another with course form and ball shaping off the tee is one of his strengths.

Pick 4: Alvaro Quiros E/W @ 45/1 (general) Big hitter has an obvious advantage here. Pretty generous fairways will allow more for his occasional errant teeshot and he is brimming with confidence after recent win.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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