Share The BMW Italian Open takes a back seat to the Players Championship this week but as followers of Nic's Picks or astute punters in general will know, these events are often the best events in terms of betting, as there seems to be (looking at the prices) little effort put in. The odds compilers have once again made a mess of the betting market in this week's secondary event - The BMW Italian Open....
When I say they've made a mess, I mean apart from Eduardo molinari, the outstanding favourite in anyone's book (Highest ranked player in the field and on his home course), they've priced up players around the 50/1 mark that actually have at least the same, if not more of a chance of doing well than players at the 20-33/1 mark. In short, this event and events of the same ilk always offer fantastic value.
BMW Italian Open Value Picks
Pick 1: Simon Dyson E/W @ 50/1 (Bodog), Top 10 finish @ 5.4 (Betfair Exchange) 1 of the best players in the field and coming into form. Has the game to do well on this course. Almost twice the price he should be.
Pick 2: Nicolas Colsaerts E/W @ 60/1 (Bet365), Top 10 finish @ 5/1 (general) No doubt about it, the form man on tour right now and his GIR% stats catch the eye here
Pick 3: Ross McGowan E/W @ 45/1 (Skybet), Top 10 finish @ 5.4 Betfair Exchange Been simmering this season so far after a tremendous finale last year. Again massively overpriced. Watch out for McGowan in Crann this year incidentally. If he has any form just prior, he is the E/W bet.
Pick 4: Anthony Wall E/W @ 66/1 (general), Top 10 finish @ 8.2 (Betfair Exchange) Finished 30th in Spain last week and 1 that always goes under the bookie's radar
Pick 5: Raphael Jaquelin E/W @ 40/1 (general), Top 10 finish @ 4/1 (general) You can never quite tell what this guy is going to do but 3rd last week and 3rd last year here - 40/1 in a field with only 1 outstanding candidate, you've got to be kidding me. Can't ignore that.
One To Watch
Good luck to the young home lad this week - Matteo Mannassero who has just turned pro at 17. All eyes will be on him. Initially priced up at 50's by some and now in to 33's already. I'll be having a watching brief though.
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