Share The BMW Italian Open takes a back seat to the Players Championship this week but as followers of Nic's Picks or astute punters in general will know, these events are often the best events in terms of betting, as there seems to be (looking at the prices) little effort put in. The odds compilers have once again made a mess of the betting market in this week's secondary event - The BMW Italian Open....

When I say they've made a mess, I mean apart from Eduardo molinari, the outstanding favourite in anyone's book (Highest ranked player in the field and on his home course), they've priced up players around the 50/1 mark that actually have at least the same, if not more of a chance of doing well than players at the 20-33/1 mark. In short, this event and events of the same ilk always offer fantastic value.

BMW Italian Open Value Picks

Pick 1: Simon Dyson E/W @ 50/1 (Bodog), Top 10 finish @ 5.4 (Betfair Exchange) 1 of the best players in the field and coming into form. Has the game to do well on this course. Almost twice the price he should be.

Pick 2: Nicolas Colsaerts E/W @ 60/1 (Bet365), Top 10 finish @ 5/1 (general) No doubt about it, the form man on tour right now and his GIR% stats catch the eye here

Pick 3: Ross McGowan E/W @ 45/1 (Skybet), Top 10 finish @ 5.4 Betfair Exchange Been simmering this season so far after a tremendous finale last year. Again massively overpriced. Watch out for McGowan in Crann this year incidentally. If he has any form just prior, he is the E/W bet.

Pick 4:
Anthony Wall E/W @ 66/1 (general), Top 10 finish @ 8.2 (Betfair Exchange) Finished 30th in Spain last week and 1 that always goes under the bookie's radar

Pick 5: Raphael Jaquelin E/W @ 40/1 (general), Top 10 finish @ 4/1 (general) You can never quite tell what this guy is going to do but 3rd last week and 3rd last year here - 40/1 in a field with only 1 outstanding candidate, you've got to be kidding me. Can't ignore that.

One To Watch
Good luck to the young home lad this week - Matteo Mannassero who has just turned pro at 17. All eyes will be on him. Initially priced up at 50's by some and now in to 33's already. I'll be having a watching brief though.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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