Share The BMW Italian Open takes a back seat to the Players Championship this week but as followers of Nic's Picks or astute punters in general will know, these events are often the best events in terms of betting, as there seems to be (looking at the prices) little effort put in. The odds compilers have once again made a mess of the betting market in this week's secondary event - The BMW Italian Open....

When I say they've made a mess, I mean apart from Eduardo molinari, the outstanding favourite in anyone's book (Highest ranked player in the field and on his home course), they've priced up players around the 50/1 mark that actually have at least the same, if not more of a chance of doing well than players at the 20-33/1 mark. In short, this event and events of the same ilk always offer fantastic value.

BMW Italian Open Value Picks

Pick 1: Simon Dyson E/W @ 50/1 (Bodog), Top 10 finish @ 5.4 (Betfair Exchange) 1 of the best players in the field and coming into form. Has the game to do well on this course. Almost twice the price he should be.

Pick 2: Nicolas Colsaerts E/W @ 60/1 (Bet365), Top 10 finish @ 5/1 (general) No doubt about it, the form man on tour right now and his GIR% stats catch the eye here

Pick 3: Ross McGowan E/W @ 45/1 (Skybet), Top 10 finish @ 5.4 Betfair Exchange Been simmering this season so far after a tremendous finale last year. Again massively overpriced. Watch out for McGowan in Crann this year incidentally. If he has any form just prior, he is the E/W bet.

Pick 4:
Anthony Wall E/W @ 66/1 (general), Top 10 finish @ 8.2 (Betfair Exchange) Finished 30th in Spain last week and 1 that always goes under the bookie's radar

Pick 5: Raphael Jaquelin E/W @ 40/1 (general), Top 10 finish @ 4/1 (general) You can never quite tell what this guy is going to do but 3rd last week and 3rd last year here - 40/1 in a field with only 1 outstanding candidate, you've got to be kidding me. Can't ignore that.

One To Watch
Good luck to the young home lad this week - Matteo Mannassero who has just turned pro at 17. All eyes will be on him. Initially priced up at 50's by some and now in to 33's already. I'll be having a watching brief though.

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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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