LYON V BAYERN BETTING TIPS | CHAMPIONS LEAGUE VALUE BETTING

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Bayern take a slender advantage into this one and Lyon will fancy their chances of upsetting the odds and qualifying for the final. Some firms still go 11/4 in the betting that Lyon will overturn the 1-0 first leg deficit and that could be a good value outside tip....

I'll be focusing on the goal index markets though as I fancy Bayern to get at least 1, meaning Lyon will need no less than 3 to go through. Both teams are weak in defense - Bayern always are and Lyon will have Toulalan and probably Boumsong out. Those losses are cancelled out by the absence of Ribery who is a big loss for Bayern after his red card last week, so once again they will look to Arjen Robben for inspiration who is available to score @ 12/5 on bet365. Lisandro for the home side though catches my eye in the anytime goal scorer market with the aforementioned weaknesses in the Bayern defense. His movement and finishing ability against Van Buyten and Demichelis, who are both average defenders, make 19/10 a good price for him to hit the back of the net. Van Bommel should return for Bayern to give them a little stability

Selections Offering Value: ( % = My estimated win expectation, please note)

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Pick 1: Over 2.5 goals @ 1/1 (Betfair Exchange, 65-70%
Pick 2: Lisandro Lopez anytime scorer @ 19/10 (Betfair Exchange), 40-45% | Lisandro to score a brace @ 12/1 (Paddypower)

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.


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What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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