Share LYON V BAYERN BETTING TIPS (Champions League Apr 27):
Bayern take a slender advantage into this one and Lyon will fancy their chances of upsetting the odds and qualifying for the final. Some firms still go 11/4 in the betting that Lyon will overturn the 1-0 first leg deficit and that could be a good value outside tip....

I'll be focusing on the goal index markets though as I fancy Bayern to get at least 1, meaning Lyon will need no less than 3 to go through. Both teams are weak in defense - Bayern always are and Lyon will have Toulalan and probably Boumsong out. Those losses are cancelled out by the absence of Ribery who is a big loss for Bayern after his red card last week, so once again they will look to Arjen Robben for inspiration who is available to score @ 12/5 on bet365. Lisandro for the home side though catches my eye in the anytime goal scorer market with the aforementioned weaknesses in the Bayern defense. His movement and finishing ability against Van Buyten and Demichelis, who are both average defenders, make 19/10 a good price for him to hit the back of the net. Van Bommel should return for Bayern to give them a little stability

Selections Offering Value: ( % = My estimated win expectation, please note)

REMEMBER: A Betfair Exchange betting account is needed to get the biggest odds and maximise your winnings from a lot of tips on Nic's Picks.

Pick 1: Over 2.5 goals @ 1/1 (Betfair Exchange, 65-70%
Pick 2: Lisandro Lopez anytime scorer @ 19/10 (Betfair Exchange), 40-45% | Lisandro to score a brace @ 12/1 (Paddypower)


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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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