This week's PGA Tour golf event comes in the shape of the Zurich Classic Of New Orleans. After a good run in the golf betting, the last few weeks have been poor with Robert Karlsson blowing 3 shots in his last 3 holes on Sunday turning what looked like a nice profit into a 3rd empty handed week in a row on the PGA tour. Not to mention KJ Choi burning up the course in round 1 only to fall asleep. Let's hope the Zurich classic can get us back on track.

Plenty of value to sink your teeth into in this weeks Zurich Classic as the field for me isn't very impressive towards the top end of the market, with an out of form Stricker and an Ian Poulter who may lack a bit of distance to make the most out of this course, the 2 market leaders. Next up for the bookmakers are KJ Choi, Charles Howell III and Steve Marino, of which none justify such short odds in my opinion, although I do like the look of Marino on the TPC Louisiana course.

The TPC Louisiana course
The course itself will play about 7,340 yards to a par of 72. Scoring is usually pretty low and "bombers" tend to do well around here. Fairways are pretty generous and rough usualy not too penal and key here is hitting the greens. They are protected by horrible pot bunkers and you must try to avoid as many wayward approaches as possible or suffer the consequences. Getting it out there off the tee will obviously leave you with an easier approach. Bubba Watson with his distance off the tee and great GIR stats and some course form is the man most prominent on my radar.

Stay tuned for expert Zurich Classic Of New Orleans value picks.....

Selections Offering Value:
Pick 1: Bubba Watson E/W @ 50/1 (Betfred), Top 10 finish @ 9/2 (W/H) As mentioned, long off the tee, great greens in reg stats and T5 here in 2007

Pick 2: Rory Sabbitini E/W @ 45/1 (Totesport), Top 10 finish @ 5/1 (Extrabet) Return to form last week and 2nd here last year.

Pick 3: John Rollins E/W @ 80/1 (general), Top 20 finish @ 15/4 (Paddypower) Decent course form and very overpriced this week given his driving ability

Pick 4: Kevin sutherland E/W @ 90/1 (Sportingbet), Top 20 finish @ 16/5 (Skybet) Ranks 2nd in GIR% and in decent form. Streaky player.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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