Winding down from the Masters this week at the Verizon Heritage where Brian Gay blitzed the field last year on this tight Harbour Town Links course and it's a pretty strong field at the Verizon with some of the elite trying to make up for a woeful Masters (and I'll be doing the same!). 2 players I already had in mind for this week's Verizon Heritage tournament (Poulter and Marino) have pulled out but there's plenty of value in this 1....

Of the market leaders, Casey is still struggling with niggling injuries and Jim Fuyrk had a terrible Masters. Brian Gay (defending champ), while I expect him to make a decent title defence, offers no value in any market. Villegas has lost his early season form. Plenty of top talent further down the field with the likes of Cink, Z.Johnson and Garcia available at about 50's and Boo Weekley, twice a winner here in the last 2 years is available at 55's. All offer value but I'll be avoiding them for various reasons.

Remember: For better value and much bigger odds on outright and place golf betting, an exchange account is an essential betting tool. Trading (You can back against your selections if they are doing well to guarantee nice profit whatever happens later in the tournament) is also a very important part of golf betting and Betfair is the place to do it.

The Harbour Town Links course, annual venue for the Verizon Heritage tournament DEMANDS accuracy. Forget your big hitters and put your driver away, you MUST hit the ball straight. The course itself is tiny (under 7,000 yards) with tight tree lined fairways and small greens. Accuracy from tee to green is key.

Verizon Heritage Value Picks:
-1pt E/W K.J Choi @ 22/1 (Sporting Bet) Choi is back on top form after a couple of bad years and the "Tank" has a fantastic tee to green game, driving it long and straight with good GIR%. Putter looked in good shape at the masters too.

-0.75pts E/W Robert Allenby @ 33/1 (Skybet) I mentioned long and straight hitters so how can I possible ignore Allenby. He played better than his finishing position suggested last week on a course that just doesn't suit but Harbour Town could be a different story

-0.75pts E/W Matt Kuchar @ 28/1 (general) In great current form, boasts 2 recent top 10's here, fantastic from tee to green and also a great putter. Can't ignore him as a win is coming soon for Kuchar.

-2pts Davis Love Top 10 finish @ 7.6 (Betfair) Love is a multiple winner here, knows how to play the course like not many others and has shown some signs of form of late. Made the most birdies in the field at Bay Hill a few weeks ago. Intelligent player who plots his way around Harbour Town.

-3pts Robert Karlsson Top 20 finish @ 4/1 (Skybet) You won't find many tipping up the big Swede this week but he has the game to take down this course. Big and straight hitter is massively overpriced this week and could be an outside bet to challenge strongly if the ball striking is up to his usual standard.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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