Share The PGA Tour heads this week to Quail Hollow (Previously the Wachovia), scene of a 45/1 success for Nic's Picks last year when Sean O Hair took it down due to his tremendous week with the driver and that's going to be key again this week as we size up the field at the Quail Hollow championships.

Some firms are offering a "Without Big 2" market this week and it may be wise to avoid the markets with Mickelson and Tiger as both are likely to feature in the top 10 (at least). Focus as mentioned will be mainly on the total driving stat around the moderately tough Quail Hollow track. I already have my shortlist whittled down to about 10 players with the likes of Watney, Kim and Mahan all performing really well last time out at the Masters and big outsiders who can drive the ball really well are on the radar such as Moore, Senden and Van Pelt. Seriously strong field this week with the likes of Westwood, Villegas and Harrington also towards the top of the market.

Quail Hollow Course
I'll be Ruling out the short hitters around this track that plays almost 7,500 yards although suprisingly Jim Fuyrk has a great record here. Total driving and par 4 performance are key at Quail Hollow. You must take advantage of your birdie opportunities before hitting holes 16,17 and 18 (The Green Mile). Par for those 3 holes is a fantastic score and there will be plenty of drama come sunday evening down that stretch. Stay tuned for expert Quail Hollow final value picks....

Selections Offering Value: ( % = My estimated win expectation, please note)

REMEMBER: A Betfair Exchange betting account is needed to get the biggest odds and maximise your winnings from a lot of tips on Nic's Picks.

Pick 1: Nick Watney E/W (W/O Woods and Mickelson) @ 28/1 (Stanjames), top 10 finish @ 4.3 (Betfair) Watney has the perfect game for this course and played fantasticly well last time out at the Masters.

Pick 2: Lee Westwood @ 16/1 E/W (W/O Woods and Mickelson) He says he's in the form of his life and I'd believe it. Might look short odds but without the big 2, it's value.

Pick 3: Anthony Kim E/W (W/O Woods and Mickelson) @ 18/1 (StanJames) Kim is looking better than ever at the moment. He is a winner on this course and could be the man to beat. Leading the tour in scoring average.

Pick 4: Hunter Mahan E/W (W/O Woods and Mickelson) @ 30/1 (Stanjames), Top 10 finish @ 4.5 (Betfair) Course and current form. Top 10 in total driving and 5th last year in par 4 performance.

Pick 5: John Senden E/W (W/O Woods and Mickelson) @ 75/1 (Stanjames), Top 20 finish @ 4/1 (Skybet) Can't overlook Senden who is starting to show signs of form, thrives on tougher courses and features in or around the top 20 here the last 4 years running


Thoughts on Nic's Picks or any golf predictions of your own for this week's Quail Hollow championship or Open De Espana? Why not discuss them in our Facebook Betting group | Twitter

Bookmark and Share Share Delicious Bookmark On Delicious
Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Best for Golf Betting

Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides
  5. Who are the best sports handicappers?

  6. GOLF MAJORS 2024: The Masters - US PGA Championship - US Open - Open Championship