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GOLF BETTING: QUAIL HOLLOW CHAMPIONSHIP PICKS

Share The PGA Tour heads this week to Quail Hollow (Previously the Wachovia), scene of a 45/1 success for Nic's Picks last year when Sean O Hair took it down due to his tremendous week with the driver and that's going to be key again this week as we size up the field at the Quail Hollow championships.

Some firms are offering a "Without Big 2" market this week and it may be wise to avoid the markets with Mickelson and Tiger as both are likely to feature in the top 10 (at least). Focus as mentioned will be mainly on the total driving stat around the moderately tough Quail Hollow track. I already have my shortlist whittled down to about 10 players with the likes of Watney, Kim and Mahan all performing really well last time out at the Masters and big outsiders who can drive the ball really well are on the radar such as Moore, Senden and Van Pelt. Seriously strong field this week with the likes of Westwood, Villegas and Harrington also towards the top of the market.

Quail Hollow Course
I'll be Ruling out the short hitters around this track that plays almost 7,500 yards although suprisingly Jim Fuyrk has a great record here. Total driving and par 4 performance are key at Quail Hollow. You must take advantage of your birdie opportunities before hitting holes 16,17 and 18 (The Green Mile). Par for those 3 holes is a fantastic score and there will be plenty of drama come sunday evening down that stretch. Stay tuned for expert Quail Hollow final value picks....

Selections Offering Value: ( % = My estimated win expectation, please note)

REMEMBER: A Betfair Exchange betting account is needed to get the biggest odds and maximise your winnings from a lot of tips on Nic's Picks.

Pick 1: Nick Watney E/W (W/O Woods and Mickelson) @ 28/1 (Stanjames), top 10 finish @ 4.3 (Betfair) Watney has the perfect game for this course and played fantasticly well last time out at the Masters.

Pick 2: Lee Westwood @ 16/1 E/W (W/O Woods and Mickelson) He says he's in the form of his life and I'd believe it. Might look short odds but without the big 2, it's value.

Pick 3: Anthony Kim E/W (W/O Woods and Mickelson) @ 18/1 (StanJames) Kim is looking better than ever at the moment. He is a winner on this course and could be the man to beat. Leading the tour in scoring average.

Pick 4: Hunter Mahan E/W (W/O Woods and Mickelson) @ 30/1 (Stanjames), Top 10 finish @ 4.5 (Betfair) Course and current form. Top 10 in total driving and 5th last year in par 4 performance.

Pick 5: John Senden E/W (W/O Woods and Mickelson) @ 75/1 (Stanjames), Top 20 finish @ 4/1 (Skybet) Can't overlook Senden who is starting to show signs of form, thrives on tougher courses and features in or around the top 20 here the last 4 years running

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Thoughts on Nic's Picks or any golf predictions of your own for this week's Quail Hollow championship or Open De Espana? Why not discuss them in our Facebook Betting group | Twitter

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Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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