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FOOTBALL VALUE BETTING: VALENCIA V ATHLETIC BILBAO BETTING TIPS - LA LIGA

VALENCIA V ATHLETIC BILBAO Betting Tips (La Liga Apr 15):
Valencia were beaten 3-2 on the island of Mallorca at the weekend after resting key players including David Villa and it was quite obvious the aforementioned wasn't very happy to be on the bench and will be looking forward to a start against Athletic Bilbao tonight.....

Valencia currently lie 4 points ahead of 4th place Mallorca with a game in hand and will be eager to secure 3rd place while Athletic Bilbao still have a chance of their own to make the 4th CL spot. Fernando Llorente will be looking to impress opposite his potential World Cup partner David Villa and will be hoping for the headlines tomorrow. Bilbao have a poor recent away record but have been scoring for fun at home and I fancy some goals tonight.

Nic's Advised Value Bets: (Scale 1-5pts, % = win expectation, please note)
Pick 1: 3.25pts over 2.5 goals @ 4/5 (Betfair), 70%
Pick 2: 2.75pts David villa anytime scorer @ 1.95 (Betfair), 60-65% - 1pt Villa brace @ 5/1 (Williamhill)
Pick 3: 1.25pts Fernando llorente anytime scorer @ 11/4 (Extrabet), 40% - 0.5pts Llorente brace @ 19/1 (paddypower)

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Expected strokes gained course fit (xSGF) can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form.

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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