FOOTBALL BETTING: TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR V ARSENAL BETTING TIPS

TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR V ARSENAL Betting Tips (Premier League Apr 14):
Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal is the big live derby game from the English Premier League this round of midweek football fixtures as well as the standout betting fixture and there's no better game for the Spurs players than Arsenal to try and get the disappointment of FA cup semi final defeat out of their systems....

Huge game in London as both Spurs and Arsenal still have everything to play for and I'd tip it as a game to produce goals. There have been some crackers in recent years in this fixture and in the goal line betting evens on the exchanges is definitely a standout price for the over 2.5. Both teams will be committed to attack and that means plenty of space in behind and chances for the likes of Defoe and Bendtner who both know where the back of the net is. With the fast and furious pace of the London derby and the likes of Bale and Walcott likely to feature and hit the bylines, over 11 corners @ 11/10 on bet365 looks a good value betting price.

Nic's Advised Value Bets: (Scale 1-5pts, % = win expectation, please note)
Pick 1: 3.75pts over 2.5 goals @ 1/1 (exchanges), 70-75%
Pick 2: 3pts over 11 corners @ 11/10 (Bet365), 65-70%
Pick 3: 1.75pts Jermaine Defoe anytime scorer @ 15/8 (Coral), 45%
Pick 4: 1.75pts Niclas Bendtner anytime scorer @ 15/8 (Coral), 45%

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.


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What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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