FOOTBALL BETTING: BOLTON V ASTON VILLA BETTING TIPS

BOLTON V ASTON VILLA Betting Tips (Premier League apr 3):
Plenty of bookmakers going odds against on the over 2.5 goals betting in the Bolton vs Aston Villa saturday 3.00pm kick off but stats can be misleading. Anything odds against in that market represents good value as both Bolton and Aston Villa have changed their style of play somewhat in recent weeks.....

Aston Villa are looking more like the team of last year where emphasis seems to be more on attack once again, leaving them more exposed at the back (as shipping 7 to chelsea would suggest) and Bolton, under Coyle, have a lot more pace up top with the likes of Lee, Elmander and Wilshere all coming into the side. Kevin Davies will be a threat for Bolton and big John Carew is in the form of his life for Aston Villa and expect him to get chances v this Bolton outfit who are suspect in defensive areas, especially at home when they have to go forward.

Nic's Advised Value Bets:

REMEMBER: Creating a Betting Exchange account is a must for any potentially successful bettor. Challenge other punter's views instead of odds compilers/ bookmakers and get much better value betting odds.

Pick 1: 3.25pts Over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 (Exchanges) - 65%
Pick 2: 1.5pts John Carew anytime goal scorer @ 2/1 (Exchanges) - 45%

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Angles and Edges: a journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets
Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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