FOOTBALL BETTING: ATLETICO V XEREZ BETTING TIP

ATLETICO V XEREZ Betting Tip (La Liga Apr 14):
Xerez coach Gorosito has been talking about going for all three points in the build up to this 1. Xerez are very close to relegation and nothing but 3 points are needed from now on and against the unpredictable Atletico, he claims they will go to attack. Atletico themselves are looking to bounce back from humiliation against Espanyol...

Defender Alvaro Dominguez mentioned in a recent interview that Atletico will be out to right the wrongs of the weekend. With a wounded Atletico and if Xerez do what they promise and attack, that will leave space and chances for the hungry Forlan and (suspended from Europa league semi) Aguero and could see goals for the home side and paddypower offer what look to me like generous value odds of 7/5 on 3 or more home goals.

Nic's Advised Value Bets: (Scale 1-5pts, % = win expectation, please note)
Pick 1: 2.5pts Atletico to score 3 or more goals @ 7/5 (Paddypower), 55%

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Angles and Edges: a journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets
Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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